Gustinha mining
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.53
Advertised RTP
66.94%
EV $0.35 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
19534.99%
142 openings, odds method
Variance
131.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 489
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 142 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 142 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 6,017 | $196 | 9.2% | 7 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 4,171 | $153 | 10.3% | 14 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 2,942 | $127 | 12.2% | 13 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 2,237 | $113 | 14.2% | 14 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 1,174 | $87.06 | 20.9% | 16 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 698 | $71.89 | 29.0% | 57 | 0.2 | — |
| G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 23.0% | $0.02 | 1.2% | 0 | 32.6 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.6% | $0.02 | 1.0% | 0 | 29.2 | 0.00× |
| Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 17.9% | $0.01 | 0.8% | 0 | 25.4 | 0.00× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 16.7% | $0.01 | 0.7% | 0 | 23.7 | 0.00× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 11.8% | $0.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 16.8 | 0.00× |
| XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 1 in 10 | <$0.01 | 0.2% | 0 | 13.8 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.53 | 66.94% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.53 | 66.84% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.53 | 66.85% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.53 | 67.10% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.53 | 67.37% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.53 | 67.40% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.53 | 67.40% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.53 | 67.40% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.53 | 67.48% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.53 | 67.86% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.53 | 67.83% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.53 | 67.85% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.53 | 67.86% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.53 | 67.88% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.53 | 67.89% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.86% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.81% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.87% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.85% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.84% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.53 | 67.81% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.53 | 67.92% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.53 | 68.21% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.53 | 68.23% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.53 | 68.12% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.53 | 67.89% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.53 | 67.97% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.53 | 67.92% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.53 | 67.96% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.53 | 67.93% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%Covert 0.1%consumer 99.7%best hit $203 (383.2x)