Спортивное питание

A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.36

Advertised RTP

76.91%

EV $0.28 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.66%

2,176 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

59 openings · below min

7 days

89.92%±4.031,529 openings

30 days

89.66%±3.392,176 openings

since tracking started

89.66%±3.392,176 openings

76.0%97.3%118.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.85% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (86.27% – 93.05%, 2,176 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	59	97.18%±20.6	—	odds
7d	1,529	89.92%±4.03	+5.9σ	odds
30d	2,176	89.66%±3.39	+6.8σ	odds
All	2,176	89.66%±3.39	+6.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,176 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Charm \| Glitter Bombcharm · red	1 in 9,750	$11.41	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,653	$10.19	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,586	$9.59	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 9,428	$8.56	0.3%	1	0.2	—
MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,376	$5.81	0.3%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 8,024	$5.36	0.2%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 7,798	$5.12	0.2%	0	0.3	—
P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,035	$2.95	0.3%	1	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,521	$2.74	0.3%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,483	$2.32	0.3%	2	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,358	$1.80	0.5%	1	1.6	0.62×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,330	$1.79	0.5%	6	1.6	3.67×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,234	$1.74	0.5%	2	1.8	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 302	$1.04	1.2%	17	7.2	2.36×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 231	$0.95	1.5%	11	9.4	1.17×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 215	$0.92	1.5%	17	10.1	1.68×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 134	$0.78	2.1%	28	16.2	1.72×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 127	$0.76	2.2%	39	17.2	2.27×
Charm \| Glamour Shotcharm · uncommon	1 in 64	$0.59	3.4%	64	34.2	1.87×
Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$0.56	3.8%	87	40.8	2.13×
Charm \| Big Braincharm · #8847ff	1 in 41	$0.50	4.4%	86	53.5	1.61×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$0.40	6.2%	80	94.3	0.85×
USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 16	$0.34	7.6%	12	133.0	0.09×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 16	$0.34	7.6%	159	132.9	1.20×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 15	$0.33	8.1%	142	149.4	0.95×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	11.7%	$0.25	10.5%	391	255.4	1.53×
Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	13.3%	$0.23	11.1%	104	289.9	0.36×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	19.6%	$0.17	12.2%	299	425.9	0.70×
Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	22.9%	$0.14	12.0%	304	497.7	0.61×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specХук на 0$0.36$0.310.86x1m

Galil AR | Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedGu.AFC$0.36$0.571.58x2h

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blueGu.AFC$0.36$0.160.45x2h

USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueDava$0.36$0.340.96x5h

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · bluequmso17$0.36$0.170.48x5h

Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted𝕸𝖆𝖐𝖘$0.36$0.250.69x5h

Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffSlinkeeee$0.36$0.230.64x6h

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blueFaHaTiK$0.36$0.180.51x7h

Charm | Big Braincharm · #8847ffFaHaTiK$0.36$0.501.39x7h

Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specFaHaTiK$0.36$0.320.88x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$0.36	76.91%	29
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.36	76.76%	29
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.36	76.59%	30
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.36	76.64%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.36	76.88%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.36	77.24%	30
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.36	77.23%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.36	77.25%	30
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.36	77.25%	30
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.36	77.34%	29
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.36	77.83%	29
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.36	77.70%	29
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.36	77.72%	29
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.36	77.77%	29
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.36	77.80%	29
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.36	77.78%	29
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.36	77.82%	29
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.36	77.78%	29
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.36	77.79%	29
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.36	77.79%	29
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.36	77.73%	29
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.36	77.71%	29
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.36	77.80%	29
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.36	78.24%	29
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.36	78.27%	29
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.36	78.12%	29
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.36	77.81%	29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.36	77.89%	29
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.36	77.89%	29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.36	77.91%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.0%restricted 13.7%classified 0.0%pink 0.0%Legendary 0.0%Mythical 0.9%Rare 0.1%violet 11.5%#8847ff 3.4%uncommon 1.6%blue 25.7%mil spec 6.9%#4b69ff 36.2%best hit —