Haze mining

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.49

Advertised RTP

66.77%

EV $0.99 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

155.76%

6,004 openings, odds method

Variance

64.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 214

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

497 openings · below min

7 days

150.58%±25.094,341 openings

30 days

155.76%±21.866,004 openings

since tracking started

155.76%±21.866,004 openings

26.5%102.5%178.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 67.36% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (133.90% – 177.62%, 6,004 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	497	97.38%±70.1	—	odds
7d	4,341	150.58%±25.1	+6.5σ	odds
30d	6,004	155.76%±21.9	+7.9σ	odds
All	6,004	155.76%±21.9	+7.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,010 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 174,931	$1,984	1.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 25,608	$548	2.1%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 16,354	$464	2.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 7,198	$347	4.8%	2	0.8	—
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 900	$171	19.1%	0	6.7	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 302	$119	39.5%	41	19.9	2.06×
SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	36.2%	$0.48	17.5%	2,053	2173.9	0.94×
Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	19.0%	$0.25	4.8%	221	1143.0	0.19×
M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	18.5%	$0.24	4.6%	894	1112.0	0.80×
SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight	12.0%	$0.16	1.9%	0	721.2	0.00×
P90 \| Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	10.3%	$0.14	1.4%	562	621.8	0.90×
MAG-7 \| Foresight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 29	$0.05	0.2%	110	210.0	0.52×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · goldMorPHeuSs$1.49$515345.8x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryMorPHeuSs$1.49$369247.6x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryevil_white$1.49$353236.6x1d

★ Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covertArekuseika$1.49$166111.7x20h

★ Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covertpoizn$1.49$166111.6x20h

★ Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covertJota$1.49$163109.2x3d

★ Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covertMashono4ka♿$1.49$161107.8x2d

★ Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covertThor Gordo$1.49$159106.5x1d

★ Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covertИВАН БУДКО$1.49$158106.3x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specThor Gordo$1.49$0.470.32x14m

P90 | Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · RareThor Gordo$1.49$0.110.07x14m

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specThor Gordo$1.49$0.470.32x14m

MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffThor Gordo$1.49$0.080.05x14m

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specMorBat144$1.49$0.470.32x43m

Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specMorBat144$1.49$0.200.14x43m

P90 | Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · RareMorBat144$1.49$0.110.07x43m

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specaleksandrgrsh$1.49$0.470.32x43m

P90 | Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · RareMorBat144$1.49$0.110.07x43m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.77%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$1.49	66.77%	12
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.49	66.61%	12
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.49	66.44%	12
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.49	66.42%	12
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.49	66.70%	12
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.49	66.98%	12
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.49	66.98%	12
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.49	66.96%	12
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.49	67.02%	12
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.49	67.09%	12
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.49	67.46%	12
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.49	67.43%	12
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.49	67.42%	12
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.49	67.45%	12
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.49	67.45%	12
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.49	67.44%	12
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.49	67.46%	12
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.49	67.44%	12
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.49	67.44%	12
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.49	67.45%	12
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.49	67.48%	12
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.49	67.38%	12
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.49	67.50%	12
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.49	67.73%	12
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.49	67.74%	12
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.49	67.72%	12
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.49	67.46%	12
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.49	67.52%	12
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.49	67.50%	12
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.49	67.54%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%gold 0.0%covert 0.4%mil spec 55.2%blue 18.5%blueLight 12.0%Rare 10.3%#4b69ff 3.5%best hit $515 (345.8x)