Horizon case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.67

Advertised RTP

75.52%

EV $0.51 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.12%

558 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

60 openings · below min

7 days

84.57%±9.41419 openings

30 days

86.12%±8.21558 openings

since tracking started

86.12%±8.21558 openings

53.0%78.5%104.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.56% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.91% – 94.33%, 558 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	60	78.51%±24.7	—	odds
7d	419	84.57%±9.41	+1.7σ	odds
30d	558	86.12%±8.21	+2.3σ	odds
All	558	86.12%±8.21	+2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 558 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,820	$39.83	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,798	$38.24	0.8%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,831	$6.32	0.7%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,080	$5.13	0.9%	1	0.5	—
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,065	$5.10	0.9%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 84	$1.97	4.6%	16	6.6	2.41×
MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$0.87	10.6%	47	34.5	1.36×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$0.70	11.0%	63	44.3	1.42×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$0.68	10.9%	25	45.4	0.55×
Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.58	10.5%	33	51.3	0.64×
P90 \| Traction (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.55	10.2%	38	52.5	0.72×
R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.38	7.5%	4	55.8	0.07×
MP9 \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10	$0.36	7.0%	42	55.3	0.76×
Dual Berettas \| Shred (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10	$0.35	6.8%	37	55.1	0.67×
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10	$0.35	6.7%	25	54.9	0.46×
Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.30	5.6%	38	52.4	0.73×
Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$0.25	4.3%	12	48.2	0.25×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specOgurchik$0.67$0.390.57x1h

P90 | Traction (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specOgurchik$0.67$0.550.82x1h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedRevelation$0.67$0.650.97x2h

Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specK7$0.67$0.260.39x2h

Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec☭Mr.M†rror↯$0.67$0.260.39x3h

P90 | Traction (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specImWithStupid$0.67$0.550.82x5h

MP9 | Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec★★★ 𝕄𝕂 ★★★$0.67$0.460.68x10h

AUG | Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specShittyVinny$0.67$0.340.50x15h

MP9 | Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specreTray$0.67$0.360.53x15h

G3SG1 | High Seas (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedreTray$0.67$0.681.01x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.52%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.67	75.52%	17
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.67	75.45%	17
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.67	75.27%	17
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.67	75.73%	17
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.67	76.07%	17
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.67	76.10%	17
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.67	76.03%	17
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.67	76.06%	17
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.67	76.23%	17
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.67	76.63%	17
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.67	76.57%	17
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.67	76.49%	17
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.67	76.67%	17
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.67	76.58%	17
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.67	76.73%	17
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	76.61%	17
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	76.48%	17
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.67	76.61%	17
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.67	76.64%	17
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	76.65%	17
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	76.59%	17
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.67	76.66%	17
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.67	77.00%	17
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.67	76.98%	17
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.67	76.88%	17
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.67	76.65%	17
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.67	76.73%	17
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.67	76.72%	17
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.67	76.69%	17
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.67	76.65%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%pink 0.1%classified 0.2%Mythical 7.4%restricted 25.3%mil spec 67.1%best hit —