Huntsman Weapon Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$4.09

Advertised RTP

75.60%

EV $3.09 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.33%

193 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

36.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

63.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

15 openings · below min

7 days

89.79%±14.59186 openings

30 days

89.33%±14.33193 openings

since tracking started

89.33%±14.33193 openings

28.5%80.0%131.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	15	79.90%±50.9	—	odds
7d	186	89.79%±14.6	+1.8σ	odds
30d	193	89.33%±14.3	+1.8σ	odds
All	193	89.33%±14.3	+1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 193 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,744	$192	0.6%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,536	$156	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 9,481	$150	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 8,732	$109	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 6,697	$72.24	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,275	$59.18	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,238	$58.88	0.4%	1	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,027	$57.24	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,019	$27.41	0.9%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 718	$24.07	1.1%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 635	$23.00	1.2%	0	0.3	—
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 518	$21.36	1.3%	1	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Tatter (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$5.54	11.0%	0	11.8	0.00×
XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$4.29	13.4%	26	18.6	1.39×
PP-Bizon \| Antique (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$4.25	13.5%	28	18.9	1.48×
AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	10.3%	$4.12	13.7%	26	19.8	1.31×
Tec-9 \| Isaac (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$3.37	14.5%	2	25.6	0.08×
SSG 08 \| Slashed (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	17.7%	$2.18	12.5%	19	34.3	0.55×
Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	17.4%	$1.48	8.4%	26	33.7	0.77×
P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	14.9%	$1.06	5.1%	10	28.9	0.35×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Isaac (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specmulashka228$4.09$2.420.59x37m

XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedRico$4.09$4.331.06x1h

Tec-9 | Isaac (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specRico$4.09$2.420.59x1h

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specRico$4.09$1.950.48x1h

P90 | Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specSEvER$4.09$1.050.26x3h

Galil AR | Kami (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specshelp1k$4.09$1.470.36x16h

Tec-9 | Isaac (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffBoxi$4.09$2.440.60x18h

PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedBoxi$4.09$4.221.03x18h

AUG | Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffSinatic$4.09$4.201.03x21h

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specMichael Jordan$4.09$2.180.53x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.60%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$4.09	75.60%	20
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$4.09	75.46%	20
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$4.09	75.42%	20
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$4.09	75.71%	20
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$4.09	76.06%	20
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$4.09	76.05%	20
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$4.09	76.03%	20
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$4.09	76.17%	20
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$4.09	76.14%	20
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$4.09	76.55%	20
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.09	76.51%	20
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$4.09	76.51%	20
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$4.09	76.57%	20
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$4.09	76.56%	20
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$4.09	76.56%	20
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.09	76.62%	20
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.09	76.56%	19
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$4.09	76.60%	20
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$4.09	76.57%	20
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.09	76.60%	20
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.09	76.52%	20
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$4.09	76.61%	20
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$4.09	77.01%	20
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$4.09	77.03%	20
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$4.09	76.94%	19
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$4.09	76.61%	19
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$4.09	76.69%	19
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$4.09	76.64%	19
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.09	76.68%	20
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$4.09	76.67%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%#ffd700 0.0%covert knife 0.0%Ancient 0.1%classified 0.5%#8847ff 16.4%restricted 19.5%mil spec 63.4%best hit —