Hydra
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$10.99
Advertised RTP
75.21%
EV $8.27 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.87%
115 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 115 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 6,832 | $227 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 5,930 | $199 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 667 | $72.26 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 189 | $46.00 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 168 | $44.09 | 3.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 1 in 32 | $23.73 | 9.0% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× |
| P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 15 | $17.36 | 13.7% | 10 | 7.5 | 1.33× |
| SSG 08 | Death's Head (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $16.42 | 14.6% | 13 | 8.5 | 1.54× |
| P2000 | Woodsman (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 1 in 12 | $15.47 | 15.5% | 15 | 9.5 | 1.57× |
| UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 24.9% | $4.81 | 14.5% | 2 | 28.7 | 0.07× |
| M4A1-S | Briefing (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 24.4% | $4.25 | 12.5% | 2 | 28.0 | 0.07× |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 24.1% | $4.07 | 11.9% | 29 | 27.7 | 1.05× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.21%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 75.21% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.03% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.02% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.31% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 75.63% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.66% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.63% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.71% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.77% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 76.19% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 76.18% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 76.15% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.19% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.15% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.11% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.25% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 76.58% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 76.60% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.50% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.30% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.29% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 76.29% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $10.99 | 76.23% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 1.3%violet 11.4%restricted 13.9%mil spec 49.0%blue 24.4%best hit —