Hyper mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.19
Advertised RTP
67.11%
EV $0.13 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
6254.39%
312 openings, odds method
Variance
58.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 118
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 312 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 312 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 9,428 | $110 | 9.2% | 5 | 0.0 | — |
| Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 119 | $9.89 | 65.1% | 299 | 2.6 | 114.24× |
| MP7 | Sunbaked (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 49.3% | $0.05 | 19.3% | 0 | 153.9 | 0.00× |
| Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 17.3% | $0.02 | 2.3% | 0 | 53.9 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 17.4% | $0.02 | 2.3% | 0 | 54.3 | 0.00× |
| Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 15.1% | $0.01 | 1.8% | 0 | 47.2 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 67.11%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.19 | 67.11% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.19 | 67.00% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.19 | 66.94% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.19 | 67.26% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.19 | 67.61% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.61% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.70% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.44% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.55% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.19 | 68.14% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.19 | 68.10% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.19 | 68.12% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.19 | 68.12% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.19 | 67.89% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.19 | 68.10% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.94% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.87% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.10% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.10% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.08% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.00% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.19 | 67.91% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.19 | 68.48% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.19 | 68.47% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.38% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.10% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.19% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.13% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.19 | 68.20% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.19 | 68.15% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.8%Consumer Grade 49.3%consumer 49.8%best hit $116 (609.8x)