Igrogame

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$33.99

Advertised RTP

76.06%

EV $25.85 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.08%

1,087 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

70.27%±9.73131 openings

7 days

76.15%±3.481,001 openings

30 days

76.08%±3.341,087 openings

since tracking started

76.08%±3.341,087 openings

60.0%70.3%80.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	131	70.27%±9.73	−1.2σ	odds
7d	1,001	76.15%±3.48	−0.4σ	odds
30d	1,087	76.08%±3.34	−0.5σ	odds
All	1,087	76.08%±3.34	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,088 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 144,948	$1,159	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 143,939	$1,149	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 76,561	$716	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 53,087	$597	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 47,567	$569	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 38,083	$518	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 28,437	$460	0.1%	1	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 6,117	$264	0.2%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,808	$243	0.2%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,050	$229	0.2%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,046	$208	0.3%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,701	$199	0.3%	1	0.4	—
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,363	$190	0.3%	1	0.5	—
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,080	$182	0.3%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$162	0.4%	0	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,428	$160	0.4%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 621	$120	0.7%	1	1.8	0.57×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 485	$110	0.9%	2	2.2	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 464	$108	0.9%	1	2.3	0.43×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 313	$93.93	1.2%	1	3.5	0.29×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 312	$93.88	1.2%	1	3.5	0.29×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 173	$75.64	1.7%	5	6.3	0.80×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 153	$72.26	1.8%	6	7.1	0.85×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 109	$63.34	2.3%	9	10.0	0.90×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$56.89	2.6%	1	13.1	0.08×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 70	$53.04	2.9%	16	15.5	1.03×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$44.84	3.6%	30	22.8	1.32×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 43	$42.63	3.9%	33	25.4	1.30×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$40.17	4.1%	22	28.8	0.76×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$39.17	4.2%	39	30.3	1.29×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$37.63	4.4%	26	32.8	0.79×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$33.46	4.9%	41	40.8	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 26	$32.71	4.9%	38	42.4	0.90×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 22	$29.56	5.3%	37	50.0	0.74×
FAMAS \| Meltdown (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$24.40	5.6%	60	64.8	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$24.07	5.6%	71	65.8	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$19.36	5.5%	99	80.4	1.23×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$17.53	5.3%	93	85.4	1.09×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 12	$16.60	5.2%	0	87.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$16.58	5.2%	93	87.6	1.06×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$15.01	4.8%	105	90.4	1.16×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 12	$13.69	4.5%	107	91.7	1.17×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$11.95	3.9%	99	91.5	1.08×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b★Morya★$33.99$13.590.40x4m

MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · coverti sniff my farts$33.99$32.780.96x39m

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$33.99$11.850.35x1h

AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b🩶L,E,K,A🩶$33.99$13.590.40x1h

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedfrizy1235$33.99$19.780.58x1h

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$33.99$17.320.51x2h

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedRad1k$33.99$16.580.49x2h

AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4bRad1k$33.99$13.790.41x2h

AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertЛаурка$33.99$55.841.64x2h

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedЛаурка$33.99$19.780.58x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$33.99	76.06%	43
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$33.99	75.89%	43
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$33.99	75.87%	43
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$33.99	76.16%	43
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$33.99	76.49%	43
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$33.99	76.50%	43
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$33.99	76.48%	43
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$33.99	76.55%	43
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$33.99	76.62%	43
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$33.99	77.05%	42
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$33.99	77.02%	42
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$33.99	77.01%	43
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$33.99	77.04%	43
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$33.99	77.03%	43
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$33.99	77.04%	42
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$33.99	77.05%	43
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$33.99	77.02%	43
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$33.99	77.03%	43
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$33.99	77.03%	43
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$33.99	77.04%	43
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$33.99	76.97%	43
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$33.99	77.09%	43
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$33.99	77.44%	43
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$33.99	77.45%	43
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$33.99	77.36%	43
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$33.99	77.05%	43
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$33.99	77.14%	43
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$33.99	77.13%	43
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$33.99	77.14%	43
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$33.99	77.11%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 2.3%classified 57.8%covert 20.2%restricted 0.0%pink 3.1%industrial 8.0%#eb4b4b 8.4%best hit —