japaskins
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.10
Advertised RTP
66.07%
EV $0.07 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
11606.67%
543 openings, odds method
Variance
85.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 185
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 543 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 543 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 7,611 | $38.24 | 7.6% | 20 | 0.1 | — |
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 6,661 | $32.71 | 7.4% | 9 | 0.1 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,926 | $19.36 | 10.0% | 40 | 0.2 | — |
| Charm | Lil' Fernocharm · #eb4b4b | 1 in 1,179 | $13.28 | 17.1% | 104 | 0.5 | — |
| Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 1 in 254 | $7.69 | 45.9% | 359 | 2.1 | 167.81× |
| AUG | Commando Company (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 99.5% | <$0.01 | 12.0% | 0 | 540.1 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.07%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.10 | 66.07% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.10 | 65.83% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.10 | 65.85% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.10 | 66.94% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.10 | 67.22% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.10 | 67.20% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.10 | 67.20% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.10 | 66.78% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.10 | 66.81% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.10 | 67.16% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.10 | 67.15% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.10 | 67.14% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.10 | 67.16% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.10 | 67.14% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.10 | 67.18% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 67.19% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 67.13% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.10 | 67.15% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.10 | 67.33% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 67.45% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 67.12% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.10 | 67.25% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.10 | 68.06% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.10 | 67.81% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.10 | 67.53% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.10 | 67.33% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.10 | 67.25% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.10 | 67.31% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.10 | 67.56% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.10 | 67.51% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.1%violet 0.4%#b0c3d9 99.5%best hit $40.35 (403.5x)