Канье Вест

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.29

Advertised RTP

71.40%

EV $0.92 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

69.93%

1,030 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

67.87%±13.21134 openings

7 days

70.29%±5.19872 openings

30 days

69.93%±4.751,030 openings

since tracking started

69.93%±4.751,030 openings

54.0%67.8%81.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	134	67.87%±13.2	−0.5σ	odds
7d	872	70.29%±5.19	−0.7σ	odds
30d	1,030	69.93%±4.75	−0.9σ	odds
All	1,030	69.93%±4.75	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,032 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 9,830	$49.41	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,717	$41.54	0.5%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,231	$29.25	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 7,642	$18.89	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 7,488	$18.37	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,450	$15.56	0.3%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 4,652	$12.16	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,535	$11.97	0.3%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,918	$7.85	0.4%	0	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,921	$7.85	0.4%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,547	$7.19	0.5%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,194	$6.49	0.6%	0	0.9	—
AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 758	$5.46	0.8%	1	1.4	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 614	$5.05	0.9%	1	1.7	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 462	$4.55	1.1%	1	2.2	0.45×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 61	$2.11	3.7%	7	16.9	0.41×
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 47	$1.88	4.4%	24	22.1	1.08×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 40	$1.75	4.8%	21	26.0	0.81×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 34	$1.63	5.2%	17	30.4	0.56×
Charm \| Lil' Squirtcharm · #d32ce6	1 in 18	$1.15	7.1%	54	58.3	0.93×
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$1.13	7.1%	70	59.9	1.17×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 17	$1.13	7.1%	66	59.5	1.11×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$1.10	7.2%	51	62.5	0.82×
Charm \| Lil' Teacupcharm · #8847ff	1 in 14	$0.99	7.5%	74	72.5	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 12	$0.83	7.7%	83	87.9	0.94×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 11	$0.79	7.6%	101	91.5	1.10×
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Field-Tested)weapon · 3	10.4%	$0.59	6.7%	58	107.5	0.54×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.6%	$0.52	6.0%	102	109.5	0.93×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	10.6%	$0.46	5.3%	118	109.3	1.08×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn)weapon · common	10.6%	$0.45	5.1%	22	108.9	0.20×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon-𝓪𝓵𝔃𝓲$1.29$0.460.36x1h

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical-𝓪𝓵𝔃𝓲$1.29$0.830.64x1h

USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon-𝓪𝓵𝔃𝓲$1.29$0.460.36x1h

MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalSlinkeeee$1.29$1.120.87x1h

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalCoryphaeus$1.29$0.800.62x2h

Charm | Lil' Squirtcharm · #d32ce6Coryphaeus$1.29$1.160.90x2h

USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonCoryphaeus$1.29$0.420.32x2h

MP5-SD | Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedCoryphaeus$1.29$0.520.40x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 71.40%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.29	71.40%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.29	71.15%	30
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.29	71.16%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.29	71.45%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.29	71.68%	30
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.29	71.68%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.29	71.71%	30
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.29	71.86%	30
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.29	71.84%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.29	72.33%	30
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.29	72.26%	30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.29	72.29%	30
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.29	72.21%	30
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.29	72.29%	30
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.29	72.27%	29
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.29	72.38%	30
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.29	72.31%	30
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.29	72.35%	29
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.29	72.25%	29
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.29	72.32%	30
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.29	72.31%	30
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.29	72.25%	30
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.29	72.75%	30
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.29	72.72%	30
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.29	72.63%	30
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.29	72.30%	30
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.29	72.36%	30
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.29	72.33%	30
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.29	72.32%	30
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1.29	72.34%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 10.4%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%rare 0.0%pink 7.7%classified 0.5%industrial 0.1%#8847ff 17.7%Rare 2.5%Mythical 17.6%#d32ce6 5.7%restricted 16.7%uncommon 10.6%common 10.6%best hit —