Kilowatt Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.09
Advertised RTP
75.14%
EV $0.82 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.21%
6,340 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,346 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 1 in 9,608 | $82.86 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 5,846 | $31.94 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 5,599 | $30.88 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 32 | $3.94 | 15.0% | 140 | 197.5 | 0.71× |
| M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 26 | $3.64 | 16.9% | 227 | 241.9 | 0.94× |
| USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 19 | $3.20 | 20.5% | 334 | 333.5 | 1.00× |
| Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 30.9% | $0.46 | 17.3% | 563 | 1959.4 | 0.29× |
| Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 29.1% | $0.41 | 14.7% | 3,799 | 1846.5 | 2.06× |
| MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 27.8% | $0.39 | 13.1% | 133 | 1764.2 | 0.08× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.14%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.09 | 75.14% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.09 | 75.01% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.09 | 74.82% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.09 | 74.78% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.09 | 75.11% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.09 | 75.41% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.45% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.42% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.45% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.54% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.09 | 75.91% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.09 | 75.90% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.09 | 75.89% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.09 | 75.88% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.09 | 75.84% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.09 | 75.94% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.94% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.95% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.91% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.95% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.98% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.89% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.09 | 75.96% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.09 | 76.31% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.09 | 76.40% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.22% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.03% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.10% | 7 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.09% | 7 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.09 | 76.07% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.0%Legendary 6.9%classified 5.3%violet 60.0%Mythical 27.8%best hit $82.72 (75.89x)