kroko3abra
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.39
Advertised RTP
74.88%
EV $1.04 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.87%
3,333 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,339 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.88% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 75.42% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 75.26% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 75.28% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 75.34% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 75.29% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 75.38% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 75.42% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 75.41% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 75.34% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 75.27% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 75.49% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 75.83% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 75.72% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 75.62% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 75.38% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 75.42% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 75.34% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 75.54% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.39 | 75.53% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 08:09 UTC | $1.39 | 75.38% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 07:05 UTC | $1.39 | 75.53% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 05:18 UTC | $1.39 | 75.65% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 23:08 UTC | $1.39 | 75.55% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.39 | 75.65% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 15:56 UTC | $1.39 | 75.63% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 10:09 UTC | $1.39 | 75.81% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 09:10 UTC | $1.39 | 75.92% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.39 | 75.97% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 07:37 UTC | $1.39 | 76.09% | 37 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.0%classified 0.4%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 5.8%Mythical 15.4%Rare 5.6%#8847ff 31.5%#4b69ff 12.9%violet 28.3%best hit —