Lake
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.07
Advertised RTP
74.03%
EV $0.05 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
231.82%
109 openings, odds method
Variance
0.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
52.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 75.04% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (222.74% – 240.91%, 109 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 109 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 925 | $0.36 | 0.8% | 9 | 0.1 | — |
| SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 535 | $0.30 | 1.1% | 4 | 0.2 | — |
| USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 101 | $0.17 | 3.2% | 19 | 1.1 | 17.60× |
| P90 | Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 1 in 69 | $0.15 | 4.1% | 55 | 1.6 | 34.66× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 55 | $0.14 | 4.7% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 12 | $0.07 | 12.0% | 0 | 9.1 | 0.00× |
| FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 19.3% | $0.05 | 17.9% | 0 | 21.1 | 0.00× |
| XM1014 | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 20.4% | $0.05 | 18.1% | 0 | 22.2 | 0.00× |
| PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 21.5% | $0.04 | 18.7% | 0 | 23.5 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 25.8% | $0.04 | 19.4% | 0 | 28.1 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.03%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.07 | 74.03% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.07 | 73.91% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.07 | 73.87% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.07 | 73.84% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.07 | 74.63% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.07 | 74.45% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.07 | 74.55% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.07 | 74.27% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.07 | 74.12% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.07 | 75.27% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.07 | 75.25% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.07 | 75.20% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.07 | 74.81% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.07 | 74.86% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.07 | 75.16% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 74.91% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 74.82% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.07 | 75.07% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.07 | 74.73% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 75.18% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 74.89% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.07 | 75.15% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.07 | 75.52% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.07 | 75.40% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.07 | 75.35% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.07 | 75.00% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.07 | 75.22% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.07 | 75.18% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.07 | 74.91% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.07 | 75.05% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#8847ff 0.1%Rare 1.6%mil spec 1.0%industrial 71.4%consumer 25.8%best hit —