Ленивый тигр
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$57.99
Advertised RTP
67.66%
EV $39.24 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.77%
243 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 68.17% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (70.76% – 90.78%, 243 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 243 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 67.66%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $57.99 | 67.66% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $57.99 | 67.49% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $57.99 | 67.34% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $57.99 | 67.32% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $57.99 | 67.58% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $57.99 | 67.87% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $57.99 | 67.89% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $57.99 | 67.87% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $57.99 | 67.92% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $57.99 | 67.98% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $57.99 | 68.37% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $57.99 | 68.34% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $57.99 | 68.33% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $57.99 | 68.36% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $57.99 | 68.36% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $57.99 | 68.36% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $57.99 | 68.37% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $57.99 | 68.34% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $57.99 | 68.35% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $57.99 | 68.36% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $57.99 | 68.36% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $57.99 | 68.30% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $57.99 | 68.40% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $57.99 | 68.72% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $57.99 | 68.73% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $57.99 | 68.64% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $57.99 | 68.36% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $57.99 | 68.44% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $57.99 | 68.44% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $57.99 | 68.45% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 35.2%epic 0.1%extraordinary 2.0%Rare 28.2%classified 21.7%mil spec 12.8%best hit $583 (10.04x)