Lesin
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$3.99
Advertised RTP
75.15%
EV $3.00 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.76%
1,325 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,326 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.15%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $3.99 | 75.15% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $3.99 | 74.92% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $3.99 | 74.73% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.99 | 74.73% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $3.99 | 75.05% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $3.99 | 75.36% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $3.99 | 75.38% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $3.99 | 75.34% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $3.99 | 75.42% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $3.99 | 75.50% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.99 | 75.92% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.99 | 75.88% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $3.99 | 75.88% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $3.99 | 75.91% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $3.99 | 75.91% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $3.99 | 75.89% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.94% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.87% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.88% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.88% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.88% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.99 | 75.82% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.99 | 75.95% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $3.99 | 76.31% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $3.99 | 76.31% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $3.99 | 76.24% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $3.99 | 75.92% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $3.99 | 75.99% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.99 | 75.96% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.99 | 76.04% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%#d32ee6 3.4%gold 0.0%covert knife 0.0%red 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 13.1%extraordinary 0.0%violet 1.1%pink 12.6%Restricted 4.8%#8847ff 24.2%#4b69ff 7.6%Rare 16.8%restricted 8.4%Industrial Grade 7.8%best hit —