Зимний Праздник
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$6.79
Advertised RTP
76.18%
EV $5.17 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
20.91%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.18%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.18% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.02% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.00% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.29% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.63% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.63% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.61% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.67% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.75% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.19% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 77.14% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 77.12% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.17% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.15% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.17% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.19% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.16% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.16% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.16% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.15% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.10% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.21% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.57% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.58% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.46% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.18% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.25% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.25% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.26% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $6.79 | 77.24% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 27.0%covert 0.5%Covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%red 0.0%pink 29.5%restricted 15.2%Legendary 11.0%#d32ee6 6.1%violet 10.6%best hit —