Lukasscz

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$5.19

Advertised RTP

75.55%

EV $3.92 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.38%

602 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78 openings · below min

7 days

79.36%±7.52523 openings

30 days

79.38%±7.03602 openings

since tracking started

79.38%±7.03602 openings

57.0%76.5%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	78	76.52%±18.7	—	odds
7d	523	79.36%±7.52	+0.8σ	odds
30d	602	79.38%±7.03	+0.8σ	odds
All	602	79.38%±7.03	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 602 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 18,238	$205	0.3%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 16,880	$165	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 16,070	$150	0.2%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,139	$94.63	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,020	$93.88	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,028	$44.84	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,656	$41.54	0.6%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,415	$39.17	0.7%	1	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,326	$38.24	0.7%	2	0.5	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 923	$33.46	0.9%	0	0.7	—
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 134	$16.13	3.1%	6	4.5	1.34×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 96	$14.00	3.7%	6	6.3	0.96×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$11.97	4.5%	10	8.9	1.13×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$11.95	4.5%	10	8.9	1.13×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$8.83	5.8%	20	15.6	1.28×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$7.95	6.2%	10	18.3	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$6.32	6.5%	3	24.1	0.12×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$5.13	6.2%	36	28.3	1.27×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$4.78	5.9%	28	29.3	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 20	$4.31	5.5%	36	30.4	1.19×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 19	$3.77	4.9%	25	30.9	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 19	$3.63	4.8%	32	30.9	1.04×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 20	$3.46	4.5%	40	30.8	1.30×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$3.41	4.4%	29	30.8	0.94×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$3.22	4.2%	35	30.5	1.15×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$2.79	3.5%	31	29.3	1.06×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$2.74	3.4%	36	29.1	1.24×
P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 21	$2.54	3.0%	1	28.2	0.04×
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 23	$2.29	2.6%	35	26.7	1.31×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$1.97	2.0%	24	24.4	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 26	$1.80	1.8%	35	23.0	1.52×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 27	$1.75	1.7%	12	22.6	0.53×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 41	$1.04	0.6%	12	14.7	0.82×
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$0.88	0.5%	7	12.6	0.56×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 48	$0.87	0.5%	10	12.5	0.80×
Charm \| Glamour Shotcharm · uncommon	1 in 69	$0.59	0.2%	7	8.7	0.81×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 77	$0.54	0.2%	4	7.9	0.51×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.49	0.2%	6	7.3	0.82×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 85	$0.48	0.1%	9	7.1	1.27×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 88	$0.46	0.1%	3	6.8	0.44×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 92	$0.44	0.1%	2	6.5	0.31×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 153	$0.27	0.0%	1	3.9	0.25×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryЖулик$5.19$3.540.68x24m

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified乂 N I S M O 乂$5.19$11.852.28x59m

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink乂 N I S M O 乂$5.19$6.341.22x1h

Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalMashono4ka♿$5.19$1.800.35x1h

M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMashono4ka♿$5.19$2.830.55x1h

FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedkray_$5.19$5.301.02x1h

M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMashono4ka♿$5.19$2.820.54x1h

P250 | Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalMashono4ka♿$5.19$2.130.41x2h

M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMashono4ka♿$5.19$2.820.54x2h

SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6Mashono4ka♿$5.19$16.113.10x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.55%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$5.19	75.55%	42
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$5.19	75.37%	42
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$5.19	75.36%	42
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$5.19	75.65%	42
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$5.19	75.98%	42
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$5.19	76.00%	42
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$5.19	75.97%	42
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$5.19	76.05%	42
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$5.19	76.10%	42
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$5.19	76.52%	42
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$5.19	76.48%	42
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$5.19	76.46%	42
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$5.19	76.50%	42
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$5.19	76.52%	42
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$5.19	76.51%	42
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$5.19	76.52%	42
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$5.19	76.50%	42
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$5.19	76.49%	42
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$5.19	76.53%	42
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$5.19	76.53%	42
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$5.19	76.44%	42
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$5.19	76.56%	42
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$5.19	76.91%	42
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$5.19	76.92%	42
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$5.19	76.82%	42
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$5.19	76.53%	42
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$5.19	76.62%	42
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$5.19	76.60%	42
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$5.19	76.61%	42
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$5.19	76.57%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%rare 1.0%classified 23.5%#d32ee6 0.7%pink 4.0%violet 9.7%Legendary 15.3%Mythical 17.4%restricted 10.9%mil spec 6.8%Rare 3.7%#8847ff 3.3%uncommon 2.6%#4b69ff 0.7%best hit —