Luxury gloves mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.79
Advertised RTP
65.78%
EV $1.18 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
5200.83%
506 openings, odds method
Variance
32.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 76
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 66.19% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (5149.96% – 5251.69%, 506 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 506 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 6,657 | $305 | 3.9% | 12 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Badlands (Well-Worn)gloves · gold | 1 in 395 | $118 | 25.3% | 127 | 1.3 | 99.12× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 96 | $72.99 | 64.8% | 365 | 5.3 | 68.99× |
| UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 21.6% | $0.10 | 1.8% | 0 | 109.5 | 0.00× |
| Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 19.2% | $0.09 | 1.4% | 0 | 97.3 | 0.00× |
| XM1014 | CaliCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2 | 17.6% | $0.08 | 1.2% | 0 | 89.0 | 0.00× |
| P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 12.0% | $0.05 | 0.5% | 0 | 60.6 | 0.00× |
| Galil AR | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2 | 11.0% | $0.05 | 0.5% | 0 | 55.5 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff | 1 in 11 | $0.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 47.7 | 0.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 13 | $0.04 | 0.2% | 0 | 39.9 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 65.78%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.79 | 65.78% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.79 | 65.60% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.79 | 65.45% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.79 | 65.46% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.79 | 65.70% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.79 | 65.98% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.79 | 65.99% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.79 | 65.99% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.79 | 66.03% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.79 | 66.09% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.79 | 66.43% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.79 | 66.42% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.79 | 66.44% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.46% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.44% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.44% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.40% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.50% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.79 | 66.81% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.79 | 66.81% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.72% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.46% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.54% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.53% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.79 | 66.56% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 28.5%extraordinary 1.1%gold 0.3%industrial 60.7%#87c7ff 9.4%best hit $311 (173.9x)