Luxury knife mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.79
Advertised RTP
65.77%
EV $1.18 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
6927.06%
381 openings, odds method
Variance
42.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 161
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 381 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 381 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare | 1 in 673 | $142 | 18.0% | 75 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 490 | $128 | 22.2% | 115 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 371 | $117 | 26.7% | 95 | 1.0 | 92.52× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 347 | $114 | 27.9% | 78 | 1.1 | 70.97× |
| Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 21.9% | $0.09 | 1.6% | 0 | 83.4 | 0.00× |
| G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 17.4% | $0.07 | 1.0% | 0 | 66.4 | 0.00× |
| USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 14.7% | $0.06 | 0.7% | 0 | 55.9 | 0.00× |
| Nova | Caged Steel (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 14.4% | $0.06 | 0.7% | 0 | 55.0 | 0.00× |
| P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 13.6% | $0.05 | 0.6% | 0 | 51.9 | 0.00× |
| PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 11.0% | $0.04 | 0.4% | 0 | 41.9 | 0.00× |
| Tec-9 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 17 | $0.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 23.1 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 65.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.79 | 65.77% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.79 | 65.61% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.79 | 65.46% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.79 | 65.45% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.79 | 65.69% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.79 | 65.99% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.79 | 66.00% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.79 | 65.99% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.79 | 66.03% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.79 | 66.08% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.79 | 66.43% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.79 | 66.42% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.79 | 66.44% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.79 | 66.46% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.79 | 66.46% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.44% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.46% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.79 | 66.41% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.50% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.79 | 66.80% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.79 | 66.81% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.73% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.45% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.53% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.79 | 66.53% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.79 | 66.54% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.1%covert 0.8%industrial 99.1%best hit $148 (82.68x)