M4A1-S

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$13.99

Advertised RTP

73.88%

EV $10.34 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.35%

888 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

35.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

53 openings · below min

7 days

71.79%±7.22587 openings

30 days

75.35%±5.87888 openings

since tracking started

75.35%±5.87888 openings

42.5%67.3%92.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	53	67.25%±24.1	—	odds
7d	587	71.79%±7.22	−0.8σ	odds
30d	888	75.35%±5.87	+0.1σ	odds
All	888	75.35%±5.87	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 888 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 19,854	$1,016	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 19,587	$716	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 18,679	$478	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 18,167	$424	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic	1 in 10,493	$204	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,390	$177	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,094	$162	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,000	$110	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,846	$108	0.4%	2	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,800	$107	0.4%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,293	$99.46	0.4%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 481	$56.56	1.1%	1	1.8	0.54×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 411	$53.49	1.3%	1	2.2	0.46×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 393	$52.68	1.3%	3	2.3	1.33×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 226	$43.24	1.9%	8	3.9	2.03×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 73	$28.57	3.8%	5	12.2	0.41×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$24.07	5.0%	16	18.9	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$22.19	5.6%	32	23.1	1.38×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$19.25	6.8%	27	32.3	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$16.60	8.1%	0	44.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$12.21	10.5%	95	78.6	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	10.1%	$11.22	10.9%	116	89.3	1.30×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	15.6%	$7.19	10.8%	163	138.4	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	16.0%	$6.84	10.6%	150	141.9	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	16.5%	$6.32	10.1%	16	146.3	0.11×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	16.9%	$5.46	8.9%	82	150.3	0.55×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff-=|FaLCoN|=-$13.99$7.030.50x38m

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedLABUX$13.99$7.120.51x1h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkborabora$13.99$6.340.45x1h

M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffᵍiτⱥήiʞ𐍉😚$13.99$7.070.51x1h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkMoek$13.99$6.330.45x1h

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMoek$13.99$7.130.51x1h

M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedMoek$13.99$19.201.37x1h

M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specForce$13.99$5.460.39x5h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkAverbaH$13.99$6.360.45x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$13.99	73.88%	26
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$13.99	73.70%	28
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$13.99	73.69%	27
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$13.99	73.97%	26
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$13.99	74.30%	27
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$13.99	74.32%	27
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$13.99	74.28%	27
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$13.99	74.36%	27
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$13.99	74.42%	26
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$13.99	74.83%	27
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$13.99	74.80%	27
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$13.99	74.80%	27
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$13.99	74.83%	27
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$13.99	74.83%	27
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$13.99	74.84%	27
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$13.99	74.85%	26
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$13.99	74.81%	26
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$13.99	74.82%	26
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$13.99	74.83%	26
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$13.99	74.83%	26
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$13.99	74.76%	26
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$13.99	74.87%	26
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$13.99	75.22%	26
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$13.99	75.23%	26
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$13.99	75.13%	26
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$13.99	74.83%	26
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$13.99	74.93%	26
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$13.99	74.90%	26
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$13.99	74.91%	26
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$13.99	74.88%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%classified 32.9%restricted 1.6%epic 0.0%red 0.4%industrial 5.0%pink 26.5%#8847ff 16.0%mil spec 16.9%best hit —