magixx
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.67
Advertised RTP
72.37%
EV $0.48 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
22170.57%
378 openings, odds method
Variance
225.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 577
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 378 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 378 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 9,493 | $597 | 13.0% | 9 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 8,736 | $429 | 10.1% | 12 | 0.0 | — |
| MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 3,798 | $191 | 10.4% | 16 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 3,279 | $177 | 11.1% | 12 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,057 | $110 | 21.5% | 122 | 0.4 | — |
| Charm | Butane Buddycharm · Ancient | 1 in 864 | $102 | 24.4% | 138 | 0.4 | — |
| UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 31.3% | $0.07 | 4.5% | 0 | 118.4 | 0.00× |
| MP7 | Sunbaked (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 22.5% | $0.05 | 2.3% | 0 | 85.0 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 17.6% | $0.04 | 1.4% | 0 | 66.5 | 0.00× |
| Negev | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 11.4% | $0.03 | 0.6% | 0 | 43.1 | 0.00× |
| MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 1 in 11 | $0.02 | 0.4% | 0 | 34.1 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 1 in 13 | $0.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 29.8 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 72.37%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 72.37% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 72.21% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 72.23% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 72.47% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 72.80% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.81% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.82% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.82% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.92% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 73.33% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 73.29% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 73.29% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 73.32% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 73.29% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 73.32% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.30% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.27% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.28% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.30% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.33% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.25% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.34% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 73.72% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 73.72% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.63% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.34% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.43% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.41% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 73.45% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.67 | 73.39% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%mil spec 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%Ancient 0.1%industrial 31.3%Consumer Grade 22.5%consumer 45.9%best hit $916 (1,367x)