MarweX
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$15.99
Advertised RTP
74.67%
EV $11.94 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.18%
548 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 548 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.67%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $15.99 | 74.67% | 43 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $15.99 | 74.50% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $15.99 | 74.48% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $15.99 | 74.76% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $15.99 | 75.09% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $15.99 | 75.10% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $15.99 | 75.08% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $15.99 | 75.15% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $15.99 | 75.21% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $15.99 | 75.62% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $15.99 | 75.61% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $15.99 | 75.61% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $15.99 | 75.62% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $15.99 | 75.62% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $15.99 | 75.62% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.63% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.61% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.61% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.63% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.63% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $15.99 | 75.56% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $15.99 | 75.68% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $15.99 | 76.02% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $15.99 | 76.03% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $15.99 | 75.93% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $15.99 | 75.63% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $15.99 | 75.72% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $15.99 | 75.70% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $15.99 | 75.72% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $15.99 | 75.69% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.3%epic 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 49.8%extraordinary 1.7%red 0.1%#ffd700 0.2%gold 0.5%Ancient 0.5%#d32ee6 19.8%pink 8.6%#8847ff 14.4%best hit —