McLaren
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.49
Advertised RTP
78.01%
EV $1.16 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.08%
3,329 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,687 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 78.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.49 | 78.01% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.49 | 77.78% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.49 | 77.70% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.49 | 77.59% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.49 | 77.94% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.49 | 78.23% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.49 | 78.24% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.49 | 78.24% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.49 | 78.28% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.49 | 78.37% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.49 | 78.80% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.49 | 78.78% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.49 | 78.81% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.49 | 78.76% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 0.3%rare 0.0%pink 0.0%#d32ee6 0.1%Legendary 0.8%restricted 20.3%#8847ff 24.0%violet 37.7%Restricted 5.9%mil spec 10.8%best hit —