Mercedes

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.09

Advertised RTP

73.95%

EV $1.55 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

72.29%

11.6K openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

36.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

73.18%±3.493,671 openings

7 days

72.29%±1.9611.6K openings

30 days

72.29%±1.9611.6K openings

since tracking started

72.29%±1.9611.6K openings

69.0%73.3%77.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,671	73.18%±3.49	−0.3σ	odds
7d	11.6K	72.29%±1.96	−1.8σ	odds
30d	11.6K	72.29%±1.96	−1.8σ	odds
All	11.6K	72.29%±1.96	−1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,982	$156	1.0%	1	1.3	0.78×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 9,897	$87.53	0.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 9,637	$57.04	0.4%	2	1.3	1.51×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,509	$51.34	0.3%	1	1.3	0.74×
★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 9,052	$40.55	0.3%	1	1.4	0.71×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 7,966	$30.12	0.2%	1	1.6	0.62×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 7,488	$27.49	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$19.76	0.2%	1	2.4	0.41×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,649	$15.85	0.3%	2	3.5	0.57×
P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,605	$15.74	0.3%	3	3.5	0.85×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,122	$12.28	0.4%	0	6.0	0.00×
AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,396	$10.35	0.5%	10	9.2	1.09×
Nova \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 599	$7.53	0.8%	0	21.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 378	$6.37	1.1%	9	33.8	0.27×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 299	$5.85	1.3%	40	42.8	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 172	$4.79	1.8%	74	74.3	1.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 117	$4.15	2.3%	100	109.6	0.91×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 81	$3.63	2.9%	154	157.2	0.98×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$2.58	4.8%	221	368.9	0.60×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$2.52	5.0%	232	388.9	0.60×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 32	$2.50	5.0%	436	394.3	1.11×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$2.30	5.6%	53	478.2	0.11×
Nova \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 22	$2.10	6.2%	517	582.1	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$1.71	7.5%	788	870.7	0.91×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 11	$1.44	8.4%	1,048	1151.6	0.91×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$1.41	8.4%	1,042	1178.7	0.88×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	12.1%	$1.13	8.8%	1,335	1548.2	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	12.5%	$1.10	8.9%	1,291	1592.9	0.81×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	14.7%	$0.87	8.3%	1,552	1885.9	0.82×
MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	14.7%	$0.87	8.3%	1,574	1880.0	0.84×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covertTurbo$2.09$15674.63x22h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffCharles Bukowski$2.09$3.201.53x1m

SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffRensuke$2.09$1.400.67x4m

Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedRensuke$2.09$1.130.54x4m

MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalRensuke$2.09$0.870.42x5m

MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical•●🆁🅰🆉🅾🆁●•$2.09$0.870.42x5m

Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted_VOIN_13$2.09$1.130.54x6m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical76561199216717534$2.09$0.830.40x7m

Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Field-Tested)weapon · violet76561199216717534$2.09$1.380.66x7m

MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical76561199216717534$2.09$0.870.42x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$2.09	73.95%	30
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.09	73.75%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.09	73.62%	30
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.09	73.55%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.09	73.88%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.09	74.18%	30
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.09	74.12%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.09	74.23%	30
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.09	74.25%	30
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.09	74.31%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.09	74.69%	30
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.09	74.61%	30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.09	74.65%	30
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.09	74.74%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%Covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert knife 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 0.1%#d32ee6 0.0%Rare 0.1%Industrial Grade 0.2%pink 0.8%rare 0.3%Legendary 0.9%restricted 23.0%violet 20.5%#8847ff 24.5%Mythical 29.4%best hit $156 (74.63x)