Militia
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$8.49
Advertised RTP
76.66%
EV $6.51 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
160.01%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 145 | $36.80 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Nova | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec | 1 in 72 | $28.56 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 39 | $22.60 | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Nova | Modern Hunter (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 38 | $22.53 | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 35 | $21.71 | 9.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| P250 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 24 | $18.78 | 11.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 11.2% | $11.69 | 20.2% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| P2000 | Grassland Leaves (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade | 25.5% | $4.26 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| MAC-10 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 17.7% | $1.99 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| XM1014 | Grassland (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 16.8% | $1.85 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| PP-Bizon | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 14.5% | $1.55 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.66%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $8.49 | 76.66% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $8.49 | 76.45% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $8.49 | 76.49% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $8.49 | 76.74% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $8.49 | 77.08% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $8.49 | 77.08% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $8.49 | 77.06% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $8.49 | 77.14% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $8.49 | 77.19% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $8.49 | 77.66% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $8.49 | 77.61% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $8.49 | 77.61% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $8.49 | 77.64% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $8.49 | 77.62% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $8.49 | 77.62% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.61% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.62% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.62% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.61% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.62% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $8.49 | 77.55% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $8.49 | 77.70% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $8.49 | 78.04% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $8.49 | 78.03% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $8.49 | 77.96% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $8.49 | 77.66% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $8.49 | 77.71% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $8.49 | 77.74% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $8.49 | 77.76% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $8.49 | 77.72% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 0.7%Mil Spec 1.4%Mil Spec Grade 2.6%mil spec 9.6%classified 11.2%Industrial Grade 25.5%Consumer Grade 49.0%best hit —