Миньоны и монстры

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$9.19

Advertised RTP

75.99%

EV $6.98 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.30%

379 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

36 openings · below min

7 days

81.31%±7.43343 openings

30 days

81.30%±7.08379 openings

since tracking started

81.30%±7.08379 openings

56.0%79.3%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	36	79.28%±22.7	—	odds
7d	343	81.31%±7.43	+1.2σ	odds
30d	379	81.30%±7.08	+1.2σ	odds
All	379	81.30%±7.08	+1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 379 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,636	$268	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny	1 in 9,436	$230	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 8,237	$150	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 7,079	$121	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 6,671	$113	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 5,430	$95.04	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,220	$92.40	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,994	$78.23	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,023	$56.56	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 1,392	$48.57	0.5%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 644	$36.29	0.8%	0	0.6	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 485	$32.71	1.0%	1	0.8	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 367	$29.56	1.2%	1	1.0	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 112	$19.14	2.4%	2	3.4	0.59×
Charm \| Hot Howlcharm · Ancient	1 in 107	$18.80	2.5%	7	3.5	1.98×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 50	$14.00	4.0%	10	7.5	1.33×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 48	$13.69	4.1%	7	7.9	0.88×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 41	$12.80	4.5%	4	9.3	0.43×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$12.70	4.6%	13	9.5	1.37×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$11.47	5.2%	8	12.0	0.67×
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$9.26	6.5%	1	18.7	0.05×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$8.77	6.9%	15	20.8	0.72×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 17	$8.54	7.0%	34	21.8	1.56×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$7.69	7.6%	28	26.1	1.07×
Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.4%	$5.62	8.4%	38	39.5	0.96×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	12.2%	$4.63	8.1%	49	46.3	1.06×
P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	12.8%	$4.27	7.8%	21	48.4	0.43×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	13.1%	$4.04	7.6%	46	49.5	0.93×
Tec-9 \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	13.6%	$3.45	6.7%	26	51.4	0.51×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMashono4ka♿$9.19$7.690.84x27m

SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6Mashono4ka♿$9.19$8.420.92x27m

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$9.19$4.050.44x57m

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$9.19$4.050.44x1h

Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet-𝓪𝓵𝔃𝓲$9.19$7.690.84x1h

P90 | ScaraB Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedMashono4ka♿$9.19$4.280.47x1h

FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covertObito$9.19$29.563.22x3h

Nova | Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested)weapon · violetHandy Lovecraft$9.19$5.590.61x3h

Tec-9 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specObito$9.19$3.460.38x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$9.19	75.99%	29
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$9.19	75.80%	29
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$9.19	75.78%	29
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$9.19	76.11%	29
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$9.19	76.42%	29
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$9.19	76.41%	29
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$9.19	76.41%	29
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$9.19	76.49%	29
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$9.19	76.55%	29
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$9.19	76.97%	29
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$9.19	76.94%	29
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$9.19	76.93%	29
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$9.19	76.95%	29
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$9.19	76.95%	29
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$9.19	76.95%	29
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$9.19	76.97%	29
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$9.19	76.95%	29
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$9.19	76.96%	29
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$9.19	76.96%	28
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$9.19	76.96%	29
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$9.19	76.89%	29
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$9.19	77.02%	29
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$9.19	77.38%	29
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$9.19	77.39%	29
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$9.19	77.28%	29
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$9.19	76.97%	29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$9.19	77.06%	29
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$9.19	77.04%	29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$9.19	77.06%	29
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$9.19	77.03%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%sunny 0.0%rare 2.1%epic 0.0%restricted 12.8%red 0.2%mil spec 16.9%Ancient 0.9%#eb4b4b 2.1%pink 14.7%classified 26.7%#d32ee6 5.7%violet 17.3%best hit —