Mirage
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$10.99
Advertised RTP
73.33%
EV $8.06 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.04%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
48.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $10.99 | 73.33% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 73.14% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 72.95% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 72.95% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 73.23% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 73.56% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 73.58% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 73.55% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 73.62% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 73.68% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 74.09% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 74.06% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 74.04% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 74.09% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 74.09% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 74.08% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.08% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.07% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.06% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.09% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.08% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 74.01% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 74.14% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 74.46% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 74.47% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 74.39% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 74.08% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 74.18% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 74.17% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 74.19% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 8.7%industrial 33.2%#8847ff 9.3%Common 23.6%consumer 25.2%best hit —