CS2 Mirage

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.39

Advertised RTP

73.57%

EV $1.02 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.39%

246 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

78.00%±15.32205 openings

30 days

77.39%±13.97246 openings

since tracking started

77.39%±13.97246 openings

62.0%78.0%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	205	78.00%±15.3	+0.4σ	odds
30d	246	77.39%±14.0	+0.3σ	odds
All	246	77.39%±14.0	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 246 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 195,095	$227	0.1%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 153,415	$98.94	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 148,476	$94.63	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 112,132	$72.12	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 45,198	$44.09	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 21,105	$32.57	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 17,618	$30.47	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 15,750	$29.25	0.2%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 9,022	$23.98	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,075	$19.63	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,026	$19.57	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 4,616	$19.00	0.4%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,833	$16.07	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,577	$15.56	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,280	$12.25	0.9%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,268	$12.21	0.9%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,207	$12.01	1.0%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,175	$11.90	1.0%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,101	$11.63	1.0%	1	0.2	—
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 485	$8.77	1.8%	2	0.5	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 450	$8.54	1.9%	2	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 200	$6.42	3.1%	3	1.2	2.44×
P250 \| Mint Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 139	$5.62	4.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$4.26	6.2%	5	3.7	1.36×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$2.74	11.2%	8	10.3	0.78×
XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 24	$2.73	11.3%	28	10.4	2.70×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18	$2.38	12.8%	12	13.5	0.89×
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	13.7%	$0.84	11.2%	1	33.6	0.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	13.1%	$0.68	8.7%	0	32.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 10	$0.40	3.7%	10	23.7	0.42×
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.38	3.5%	13	23.1	0.56×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 11	$0.38	3.4%	20	22.8	0.88×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$0.36	3.2%	32	22.2	1.44×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$0.35	2.9%	32	21.4	1.50×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$0.33	2.6%	24	20.4	1.18×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 74	$0.05	0.1%	2	3.3	0.60×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specDavushki$1.39$0.300.22x3d

Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blueDavushki$1.39$0.390.28x3d

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedDavushki$1.39$0.790.57x3d

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violetDavushki$1.39$0.340.24x3d

Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specDavushki$1.39$0.300.22x3d

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedDavushki$1.39$0.790.57x3d

SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violetDavushki$1.39$0.350.25x3d

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violetDavushki$1.39$0.340.24x3d

MAC-10 | Button Masher (Well-Worn)weapon · violetDavushki$1.39$0.370.26x3d

SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violetDavushki$1.39$0.350.25x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.57%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.39	73.57%	36
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.39	73.42%	36
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.39	73.47%	36
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.39	73.82%	36
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.39	74.10%	36
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.39	74.15%	36
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.39	74.11%	36
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.39	74.15%	36
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.39	74.16%	36
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.39	74.62%	36
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.39	74.57%	36
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.39	74.56%	36
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.39	74.61%	36
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.39	74.59%	36
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.39	74.67%	36
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.39	74.69%	36
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.39	74.60%	36
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.39	74.55%	36
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.39	74.73%	36
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.39	74.69%	36
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.39	74.55%	36
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.39	74.70%	36
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.39	75.04%	36
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.39	75.06%	36
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.39	74.97%	36
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.39	74.70%	36
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.39	74.70%	36
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.39	74.70%	36
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.39	74.74%	36
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1.39	74.73%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%Covert 0.0%classified 1.9%Ancient 0.0%Legendary 0.1%mil spec 9.4%#d32ee6 0.4%pink 0.5%consumer 0.7%restricted 17.3%#8847ff 19.0%#4b69ff 15.0%blue 9.6%violet 26.0%best hit —