gambatracker
Live
Big wins
Blackjack$7,5002.50xWaifu Tower$5,0181,004xBlackjack$6,0002.00xRainbet Speed Blackjack$1,2731.50xAl the Chemist$11.2K1.12x5 Lions Megaways 2$1,12416.00xRainbet Blackjack$5,0002.50xThe Dog House$12.2K84.95xCrazy Ex-Girlfriend Double Trouble$1,51954.87x2 Hand Casino Hold'em$2,0022.86xMines$186138.7xMines$186138.7xGorilla Mayhem$10.7K1.67xSugar Rush 1000$20.94105.4xCoffee Dealer$280204.1xMines$186138.7xCase Battles$1,3566.47xStarlight Christmas$54.7K5.47xPrive Lounge Blackjack 9$22.6K2.83xCase Battles$3,4582.41xSweet Bonanza 1000$141336.2xSalon Privé Blackjack F$19K2.00xMines$1,8696.19xBig Bass Splash$145217.2x

Missing Link Charms

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$0.26
Advertised RTP
75.57%
EV $0.20 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.54%
1,456 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
91.66%±15.67163 openings
7 days
90.75%±5.791,153 openings
30 days
90.54%±5.121,456 openings
since tracking started
90.54%±5.121,456 openings
75.0%91.5%108.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.42% – 95.66%, 1,456 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h16391.66%±15.7+2.0σodds
7d1,15390.75%±5.79+4.9σodds
30d1,45690.54%±5.12+5.4σodds
All1,45690.54%±5.12+5.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,460 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Charm | Hot Howlcharm · Ancient1 in 9,918$18.801.0%00.1—
Charm | Hot Wurstcharm · #eb4b4b1 in 8,691$7.150.4%00.2—
Charm | Diamond Dogcharm · rare1 in 6,736$4.840.4%10.2—
Charm | Lil' Monstercharm · uncommon1 in 1,500$2.120.7%31.0—
Charm | Diner Dogcharm · #d32ce61 in 458$1.361.5%13.20.31×
Charm | Lil' Teacupcharm · #8847ff1 in 190$0.992.6%117.71.43×
Charm | Lil' Whiskerscharm · #8847ff1 in 115$0.823.6%2612.72.05×
Charm | Chicken Lil'charm · uncommon1 in 59$0.635.4%4424.71.78×
Charm | Lil' Sandycharm · uncommon1 in 40$0.546.9%5736.61.56×
Charm | That's Bananascharm · uncommon1 in 37$0.527.1%6439.21.63×
Charm | Lil' Squatchcharm · #8847ff1 in 12$0.2912.4%180123.81.45×
Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff13.8%$0.1611.2%180201.80.89×
Charm | Hot Saucecharm · uncommon13.9%$0.1611.1%189202.30.93×
Charm | Pinch O' Saltcharm · uncommon14.1%$0.1410.2%173205.60.84×
Charm | Lil' Crasscharm · uncommon14.1%$0.149.8%184206.10.89×
Charm | Big Kevcharm · #4b69ff14.1%$0.139.5%174206.10.84×
Charm | Lil' Avacharm · uncommon12.9%$0.096.1%173188.80.92×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Charm | Lil' Sandycharm · uncommonw-KEY YUSUF$0.26$0.481.84x
Charm | Pinch O' Saltcharm · uncommonMr.Bad.Cat$0.26$0.140.55x
Charm | Lil' Avacharm · uncommonSigaretu$0.26$0.090.36x
Charm | Lil' Crasscharm · uncommonSigaretu$0.26$0.140.53x
Charm | Hot Saucecharm · uncommonSigaretu$0.26$0.150.57x
Charm | Hot Saucecharm · uncommonRodas Maluco$0.26$0.150.57x
Charm | Hot Saucecharm · uncommonHufner$0.26$0.150.58x
Charm | Hot Saucecharm · uncommonRADUM1Xツ$0.26$0.160.60x
Charm | Lil' Squatchcharm · #8847ffRADUM1Xツ$0.26$0.291.10x
Charm | Lil' Crasscharm · uncommonFortune Or Fate$0.26$0.140.53x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.57%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$0.2675.57%17
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$0.2675.40%17
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$0.2675.38%17
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$0.2675.76%17
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$0.2676.00%17
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$0.2676.05%17
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$0.2676.00%17
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$0.2676.03%17
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$0.2676.13%17
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$0.2676.55%17
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$0.2676.52%17
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$0.2676.50%17
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$0.2676.55%17
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$0.2676.54%17
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$0.2676.47%17
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$0.2676.51%17
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$0.2676.60%17
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$0.2676.58%17
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$0.2676.56%17
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$0.2676.60%17
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$0.2676.55%17
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$0.2676.70%17
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$0.2676.93%17
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$0.2676.85%17
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$0.2676.93%17
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$0.2676.57%17
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$0.2676.66%17
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$0.2676.70%17
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$0.2676.69%17
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$0.2676.66%17
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%rare 0.0%uncommon 61.9%#d32ce6 0.2%#8847ff 9.9%#4b69ff 27.9%best hit —