Missing Link Charms 2
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.40
Advertised RTP
74.99%
EV $0.30 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.29%
1,041 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 75.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (93.69% – 108.88%, 1,041 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,041 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.40 | 74.99% | 21 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.40 | 74.88% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.40 | 74.85% | 22 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.40 | 75.15% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.40 | 75.42% | 22 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.40 | 75.46% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.40 | 75.35% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.40 | 75.49% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.40 | 75.52% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.40 | 75.96% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.40 | 76.03% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.40 | 76.03% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.40 | 75.97% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.40 | 76.02% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.40 | 76.03% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 75.95% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 75.95% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.40 | 76.02% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.40 | 76.07% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 76.07% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 75.98% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.40 | 76.01% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.40 | 76.41% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.40 | 76.38% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.40 | 76.28% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.40 | 75.99% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.40 | 76.11% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.40 | 76.07% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.40 | 76.12% | 22 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.40 | 75.99% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedAncient 0.0%red 0.0%#d32ce6 1.4%violet 0.5%#8847ff 14.7%restricted 5.5%#4b69ff 66.1%Rare 11.8%best hit $21.64 (54.10x)