Monsters

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.41

Advertised RTP

75.69%

EV $0.31 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 199,403	$99.71	0.2%	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 197,435	$61.12	0.1%	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 183,188	$31.85	0.1%	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 180,995	$30.45	0.1%	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 178,802	$29.25	0.1%	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 177,547	$28.62	0.1%	—
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 117,253	$16.13	0.0%	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 78,271	$12.40	0.1%	—
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 76,584	$12.25	0.1%	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 69,421	$11.63	0.1%	—
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 62,979	$11.08	0.1%	—
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 16,461	$6.42	0.1%	—
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 12,703	$5.85	0.1%	—
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 11,682	$5.68	0.2%	—
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,162	$4.27	0.3%	—
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,139	$4.26	0.3%	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 3,607	$3.77	0.3%	—
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,405	$3.70	0.4%	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,984	$3.53	0.4%	—
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,010	$2.44	0.8%	—
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 363	$1.71	1.5%	—
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 99	$1.07	3.5%	—
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 27	$0.63	7.6%	—
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$0.59	8.1%	—
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 21	$0.56	8.4%	—
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$0.53	8.9%	—
Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$0.51	9.2%	—
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	10.0%	$0.35	11.2%	—
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	10.9%	$0.32	11.2%	—
P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	12.3%	$0.28	10.9%	—
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	13.1%	$0.25	10.4%	—
PP-Bizon \| Runic (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$0.07	1.8%	—
SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$0.06	1.4%	—
SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.06	1.3%	—
MP7 \| Sunbaked (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 16	$0.05	1.0%	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.41	75.69%	35
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.41	75.47%	35
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.41	75.50%	35
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.41	75.78%	35
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.41	76.09%	35
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.41	76.14%	35
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.41	76.23%	35
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.41	76.21%	35
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.41	76.12%	35
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.41	76.65%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.41	76.63%	35
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.41	76.66%	35
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.41	76.60%	35
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.41	76.77%	35
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.41	76.66%	35
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.41	76.72%	35
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.41	76.55%	35
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.41	76.58%	35
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.41	76.52%	35
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.41	76.68%	35
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.41	76.66%	35
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.41	76.78%	35
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.41	77.06%	35
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.41	77.08%	35
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.41	76.97%	35
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.41	76.78%	35
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.41	76.81%	35
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.41	76.88%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.41	76.92%	35
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.41	76.94%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%Ancient 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%classified 0.1%Legendary 0.0%pink 0.0%violet 11.0%restricted 23.2%Mythical 4.7%mil spec 28.5%Rare 3.7%#4b69ff 8.2%milspec 7.2%blue 7.0%Consumer Grade 6.2%