Muse Charm
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$3.39
Advertised RTP
75.96%
EV $2.57 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.60%
8,285 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.83% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.86% – 84.33%, 8,285 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,289 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $3.39 | 75.96% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.80% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.80% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $3.39 | 76.08% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $3.39 | 76.43% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.47% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.44% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.48% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.55% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.39 | 76.98% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $3.39 | 76.91% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $3.39 | 77.00% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.96% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.01% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.90% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.04% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $3.39 | 77.37% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $3.39 | 77.38% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.27% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $3.39 | 76.94% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.06% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.04% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.39 | 77.06% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $3.39 | 77.04% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%red 0.0%covert knife 0.0%covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 4.5%pink 2.2%#d32ee6 0.3%#d32ce6 0.5%mil spec 0.8%#8847ff 1.3%#4b69ff 1.6%Legendary 2.7%Mythical 5.2%Classified 6.1%restricted 22.3%violet 25.9%Rare 12.9%Industrial Grade 13.6%best hit —