Грибная поляна

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.26

Advertised RTP

77.87%

EV $0.20 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.95%

12.4K openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.26%±4.481,226 openings

7 days

96.37%±1.5410.3K openings

30 days

95.95%±1.4112.4K openings

since tracking started

95.95%±1.4112.4K openings

77.0%87.8%98.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 78.59% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.54% – 97.36%, 12,395 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,226	93.26%±4.48	+6.8σ	odds
7d	10.3K	96.37%±1.54	+22.8σ	odds
30d	12.4K	95.95%±1.41	+24.1σ	odds
All	12.4K	95.95%±1.41	+24.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 9,676	$8.56	0.4%	3	1.3	2.34×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 9,592	$7.90	0.4%	1	1.3	0.77×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 9,110	$5.99	0.3%	2	1.4	1.47×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 8,695	$5.19	0.3%	2	1.4	1.40×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 8,193	$4.56	0.3%	1	1.5	0.66×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,019	$3.67	0.3%	4	1.8	2.26×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 4,343	$2.52	0.3%	2	2.9	0.70×
AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,742	$2.32	0.3%	10	3.3	3.01×
XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 3,019	$2.08	0.3%	13	4.1	3.16×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,604	$1.94	0.4%	7	4.8	1.47×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,214	$1.80	0.4%	14	5.6	2.49×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,740	$1.63	0.5%	14	7.1	1.96×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 526	$1.04	1.0%	56	23.6	2.37×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 508	$1.02	1.0%	36	24.5	1.47×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 321	$0.87	1.3%	69	38.7	1.78×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 239	$0.78	1.6%	127	51.9	2.45×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 131	$0.62	2.3%	161	95.2	1.69×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$0.45	4.0%	493	227.5	2.17×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 45	$0.41	4.5%	510	274.7	1.86×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$0.35	5.7%	769	413.6	1.86×
USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$0.34	5.8%	137	425.7	0.32×
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 22	$0.30	6.8%	727	571.1	1.27×
P90 \| Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 15	$0.24	8.2%	829	844.7	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$0.21	9.0%	247	1080.7	0.23×
Sawed-Off \| Morris (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	10.6%	$0.18	9.5%	801	1319.9	0.61×
Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	13.2%	$0.14	9.4%	1,966	1635.3	1.20×
MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	13.6%	$0.14	9.3%	2,326	1695.7	1.37×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	14.2%	$0.13	9.0%	0	1765.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	15.3%	$0.09	7.1%	1,007	1906.5	0.53×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff𝙗𝙤𝙣𝙣𝙮𝙠$0.26$0.301.17xnow

P250 | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blueGordinho bololo$0.26$0.301.14x2m

MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · bluesorry$0.26$0.140.52x12m

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffsorry$0.26$0.150.59x12m

USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluesorry$0.26$0.281.10x12m

Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violetsorry$0.26$0.351.33x12m

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffsorry$0.26$0.150.59x12m

USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluetoboo$0.26$0.281.10x14m

Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violetsorry$0.26$0.411.60x19m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 77.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$0.26	77.87%	29
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.26	77.76%	29
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.26	77.46%	29
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.26	77.53%	29
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.26	77.82%	29
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.26	78.08%	29
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.26	78.13%	29
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.26	78.17%	28
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.26	78.23%	28
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.26	78.27%	28
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.26	78.79%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.26	78.70%	28
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.26	78.69%	28
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.26	78.75%	29
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.26	78.67%	29
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.26	78.74%	29
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.26	78.70%	29
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.26	78.71%	29
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.26	78.68%	29
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.26	78.70%	29
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.26	78.74%	28
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.26	78.68%	29
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.26	78.68%	28
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.26	79.17%	28
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.26	79.14%	28
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.26	79.04%	28
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.26	78.82%	28
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.26	78.89%	28
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.26	78.87%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.26	78.88%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 0.0%uncommon 0.0%Legendary 0.0%classified 0.1%violet 6.3%restricted 2.2%Mythical 0.0%#8847ff 0.8%blue 21.7%mil spec 6.8%#4b69ff 21.8%milspec 26.0%industrial 14.2%best hit —