NeoNoir mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.19
Advertised RTP
67.22%
EV $0.13 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
18912.82%
455 openings, odds method
Variance
113.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 299
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 455 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 456 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 769 | $41.07 | 41.8% | 174 | 0.6 | — |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 489 | $30.66 | 49.1% | 229 | 0.9 | — |
| Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 48.3% | $0.01 | 5.7% | 0 | 220.4 | 0.00× |
| XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 33.0% | $0.01 | 2.6% | 0 | 150.4 | 0.00× |
| Dual Berettas | BorDeux (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 18.4% | <$0.01 | 0.9% | 0 | 83.7 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 67.22%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.19 | 67.22% | 5 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.19 | 67.20% | 5 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.19 | 67.08% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.19 | 67.00% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.19 | 67.24% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.19 | 67.45% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.56% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.40% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.48% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.39% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.19 | 67.90% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.19 | 67.89% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.19 | 67.87% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.19 | 68.00% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.19 | 68.00% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.19 | 68.00% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.91% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.99% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.11% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.13% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.12% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.19 | 68.03% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.16% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.19 | 68.43% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.19 | 68.29% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.35% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.19 | 67.96% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.22% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.06% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.19 | 68.20% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%Ancient 0.2%#b0c3d9 48.3%consumer 51.3%best hit $44.71 (235.3x)