Price
$1.09
Advertised RTP
77.13%
EV $0.84 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.23%
19.3K openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 77.13%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.09 | 77.13% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.09 | 76.89% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.09 | 76.84% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.09 | 77.22% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.09 | 77.51% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.09 | 77.56% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.09 | 77.44% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.09 | 77.52% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.09 | 77.59% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.09 | 78.10% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.09 | 78.07% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.09 | 77.97% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.09 | 77.99% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.09 | 77.98% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.09 | 78.05% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 78.00% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 78.06% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.09 | 78.08% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.09 | 78.01% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 78.14% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 77.94% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.09 | 78.10% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.09 | 78.37% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%covert 0.0%pink 0.2%#4b69ff 0.1%Legendary 0.1%Classified 0.3%#8847ff 17.9%violet 25.5%Mythical 24.0%restricted 24.8%mil spec 7.0%best hit —