Ninja

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$10.99

Advertised RTP

76.15%

EV $8.37 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.99%

541 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

75 openings · below min

7 days

77.99%±6.57431 openings

30 days

79.99%±5.92541 openings

since tracking started

79.99%±5.92541 openings

49.5%68.0%86.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	75	65.82%±15.7	—	odds
7d	431	77.99%±6.57	+0.3σ	odds
30d	541	79.99%±5.92	+1.0σ	odds
All	541	79.99%±5.92	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 541 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 112,457	$357	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 93,790	$315	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 33,808	$193	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 21,395	$162	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 9,015	$118	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,449	$116	0.2%	0	0.1	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,591	$111	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,384	$110	0.2%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,729	$94.63	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 3,708	$87.06	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,807	$79.15	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 2,137	$72.12	0.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,663	$66.21	0.5%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,624	$65.68	0.5%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 809	$51.77	0.8%	0	0.7	—
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 573	$46.00	1.0%	3	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 426	$41.54	1.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 378	$39.83	1.3%	1	1.4	0.70×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 378	$39.83	1.3%	1	1.4	0.70×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 377	$39.80	1.3%	1	1.4	0.70×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 248	$34.37	1.7%	2	2.2	0.92×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$31.85	1.9%	3	2.7	1.11×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 188	$31.18	2.0%	3	2.9	1.04×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$22.90	3.4%	9	6.7	1.34×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 49	$18.99	4.6%	12	11.0	1.09×
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 17	$12.01	8.4%	40	31.7	1.26×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 17	$11.90	8.5%	33	32.3	1.02×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$11.80	8.6%	31	32.9	0.94×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$9.89	10.0%	52	45.7	1.14×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	15.1%	$6.32	11.4%	11	81.7	0.13×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	15.6%	$6.09	11.3%	74	84.3	0.88×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	18.3%	$4.28	9.3%	111	98.8	1.12×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	18.3%	$4.15	9.1%	72	99.2	0.73×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkBoris_Britva$10.99$6.140.56x30m

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryADI$10.99$4.150.38x56m

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkP1NKMAN$10.99$6.340.58x1h

Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedARD.RP$10.99$9.890.90x1h

MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6ARD.RP$10.99$11.951.09x1h

MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkSlinkeeee$10.99$6.150.56x1h

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendaryfrizy1235$10.99$4.280.39x1h

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary🩶L,E,K,A🩶$10.99$4.280.39x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.15%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$10.99	76.15%	33
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$10.99	75.98%	33
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$10.99	75.98%	33
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$10.99	76.27%	33
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$10.99	76.59%	33
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$10.99	76.59%	33
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$10.99	76.59%	33
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$10.99	76.65%	33
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$10.99	76.70%	33
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$10.99	77.15%	33
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$10.99	77.12%	33
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$10.99	77.10%	33
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$10.99	77.14%	33
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$10.99	77.13%	33
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$10.99	77.14%	33
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$10.99	77.16%	33
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$10.99	77.11%	33
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$10.99	77.13%	33
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$10.99	77.14%	33
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$10.99	77.15%	34
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$10.99	77.07%	33
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$10.99	77.18%	32
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$10.99	77.53%	32
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$10.99	77.55%	32
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$10.99	77.47%	32
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$10.99	77.14%	32
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$10.99	77.24%	33
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$10.99	77.21%	33
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$10.99	77.26%	33
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$10.99	77.20%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.0%restricted 1.2%sunny 0.0%covert 1.0%extraordinary 0.3%Covert 0.1%classified 17.1%Ancient 1.0%#d32ee6 11.8%pink 30.7%Legendary 36.6%best hit —