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A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$13.99
Advertised RTP
73.89%
EV $10.34 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.97%
12.1K openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.83% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.62% – 78.32%, 12,148 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 73.89% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.70% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.69% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.98% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 74.30% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.30% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.28% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.34% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.41% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.84% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.79% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.77% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.88% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 75.22% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 75.23% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 75.14% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.91% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.91% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 74.93% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $13.99 | 74.89% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 22.3%covert 0.7%extraordinary 0.0%Immortal 0.0%red 0.1%classified 29.9%Legendary 10.3%Classified 4.7%violet 15.7%#d32ee6 16.2%best hit —