CS2 Nuke

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.67

Advertised RTP

75.57%

EV $0.51 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

50.30%

1 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

1 openings · below min

30 days

1 openings · below min

since tracking started

1 openings · below min

-0.5%114.8%230.0%

Small sample. 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	1	50.30%±179.0	—	odds
30d	1	50.30%±179.0	—	odds
All	1	50.30%±179.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 197,929	$108	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 197,487	$101	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 190,108	$63.34	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 173,977	$44.54	0.1%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 137,411	$30.73	0.0%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 132,334	$29.56	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 68,357	$18.99	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 46,935	$15.93	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25,838	$12.50	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 24,405	$12.23	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 19,375	$11.22	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13,807	$9.91	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 8,718	$8.42	0.2%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,029	$6.44	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,509	$6.15	0.3%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,781	$5.68	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,117	$4.15	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 986	$3.98	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 755	$3.63	0.9%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 724	$3.58	1.0%	0	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 474	$3.09	1.3%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 464	$3.06	1.3%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 319	$2.69	1.7%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 117	$1.87	3.2%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$1.71	3.6%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 21	$0.90	8.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 19	$0.84	8.7%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.66	10.0%	0	0.1	—
XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 10	$0.53	10.2%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	11.1%	$0.44	9.7%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	11.4%	$0.41	9.3%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	11.9%	$0.36	8.5%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	11.9%	$0.36	8.4%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.9%	$0.35	8.2%	1	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 15	$0.11	1.5%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 22	$0.07	0.6%	0	0.0	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violetkenT777$0.67$0.340.50x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.57%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.67	75.57%	36
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.67	75.36%	36
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.67	75.45%	36
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.67	75.71%	36
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.67	76.06%	36
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.67	76.13%	36
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.67	76.21%	36
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.67	76.18%	36
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.67	76.23%	36
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.67	76.62%	36
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.67	76.62%	36
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.67	76.64%	36
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.67	76.58%	36
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.67	76.49%	36
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.67	76.62%	36
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	76.60%	36
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	76.59%	36
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.67	76.57%	36
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.67	76.76%	36
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	76.66%	36
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	76.63%	36
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.67	76.77%	36
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.67	77.05%	36
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.67	76.93%	36
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.67	76.93%	36
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.67	76.60%	36
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.67	76.74%	36
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.67	76.60%	36
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.67	76.78%	36
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.67	76.87%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%classified 1.0%restricted 1.6%#d32ee6 0.0%Legendary 0.4%pink 0.2%#8847ff 16.5%#4b69ff 5.2%Rare 12.1%violet 21.7%milspec 17.9%mil spec 23.3%best hit —