Октоберфест

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$4.29

Advertised RTP

75.95%

EV $3.26 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.05%

857 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

75 openings · below min

7 days

75.19%±5.80741 openings

30 days

74.05%±5.39857 openings

since tracking started

74.05%±5.39857 openings

49.5%68.5%87.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	75	68.50%±18.4	—	odds
7d	741	75.19%±5.80	−0.6σ	odds
30d	857	74.05%±5.39	−1.0σ	odds
All	857	74.05%±5.39	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 864 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,699	$145	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 9,427	$116	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,939	$92.40	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 8,190	$75.08	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 7,130	$61.45	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,153	$53.04	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 3,403	$36.29	0.3%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,749	$32.71	0.4%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,193	$29.56	0.4%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 737	$19.25	0.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 452	$16.07	1.1%	1	1.9	0.52×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 309	$14.00	1.4%	2	2.8	0.72×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 291	$13.69	1.4%	2	3.0	0.67×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 227	$12.50	1.7%	0	3.8	0.00×
Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 98	$9.12	2.9%	10	8.8	1.13×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 90	$8.83	3.0%	8	9.6	0.83×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 88	$8.77	3.0%	9	9.8	0.92×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 83	$8.54	3.2%	8	10.5	0.76×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 63	$7.69	3.7%	12	13.6	0.88×
Charm \| Baby Karat CTcharm · rare	1 in 50	$6.97	4.3%	15	17.3	0.87×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$5.38	5.9%	34	30.8	1.10×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 17	$4.15	7.4%	52	49.9	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$4.04	7.5%	51	52.2	0.98×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$3.22	8.2%	86	71.6	1.20×
Charm \| Titeenium AWPcharm · Legendary	1 in 11	$2.88	8.2%	85	80.5	1.06×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	10.4%	$2.52	8.0%	39	89.7	0.43×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	11.6%	$1.97	7.0%	118	100.3	1.18×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.8%	$1.80	6.5%	41	101.7	0.40×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	11.8%	$1.63	5.9%	124	101.8	1.22×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.8%	$1.61	5.8%	125	101.7	1.23×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalMashono4ka♿$4.29$1.770.41x23m

Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalMashono4ka♿$4.29$1.770.41x48m

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMashono4ka♿$4.29$3.180.74x50m

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedmulashka228$4.29$3.190.74x56m

AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet-𝓪𝓵𝔃𝓲$4.29$1.660.39x1h

Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalMashono4ka♿$4.29$1.770.41x1h

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalMashono4ka♿$4.29$2.030.47x1h

SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6Handy Lovecraft$4.29$8.431.97x3h

P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkHandy Lovecraft$4.29$5.361.25x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$4.29	75.95%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$4.29	75.77%	30
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$4.29	75.76%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$4.29	76.09%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$4.29	76.43%	30
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$4.29	76.37%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$4.29	76.35%	30
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$4.29	76.46%	30
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$4.29	76.51%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$4.29	76.94%	30
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.29	76.93%	30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$4.29	76.92%	30
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$4.29	76.94%	30
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$4.29	76.96%	30
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$4.29	76.91%	30
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.29	76.98%	30
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.29	76.92%	30
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$4.29	76.93%	29
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$4.29	76.98%	30
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.29	76.96%	30
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.29	76.87%	30
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$4.29	76.98%	30
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$4.29	77.36%	29
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$4.29	77.31%	30
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$4.29	77.27%	30
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$4.29	76.94%	29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$4.29	77.08%	30
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$4.29	77.02%	29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.29	77.02%	29
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$4.29	77.02%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 0.0%red 0.0%classified 18.2%mil spec 0.2%rare 2.3%#eb4b4b 0.3%#d32ee6 1.2%violet 25.1%pink 3.6%Legendary 15.1%Mil Spec Grade 10.4%Mythical 23.4%best hit —