Operation #1

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.75

Advertised RTP

72.54%

EV $0.54 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,861	$28.60	0.5%	—
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,861	$28.57	0.5%	—
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 9,600	$19.91	0.4%	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 9,566	$19.36	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,766	$13.27	0.3%	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 8,391	$11.97	0.3%	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 6,553	$8.54	0.2%	—
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 4,364	$6.32	0.3%	—
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 4,160	$6.15	0.3%	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 4,095	$6.09	0.3%	—
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,259	$4.55	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,435	$3.77	0.5%	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,154	$3.46	0.6%	—
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,092	$3.39	0.6%	—
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 726	$2.91	0.7%	—
P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 173	$1.72	1.8%	—
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 171	$1.71	1.8%	—
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 168	$1.70	1.9%	—
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 150	$1.63	2.0%	—
SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$1.22	3.2%	—
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$1.18	3.3%	—
Charm \| Lil' Squirtcharm · #d32ce6	1 in 61	$1.15	3.5%	—
SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 55	$1.10	3.7%	—
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 35	$0.90	4.8%	—
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$0.89	4.9%	—
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$0.68	6.3%	—
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 15	$0.58	7.1%	—
P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$0.48	7.5%	—
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$0.44	7.5%	—
P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	10.5%	$0.38	7.3%	—
MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	10.6%	$0.38	7.3%	—
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	10.9%	$0.36	7.1%	—
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	11.4%	$0.32	6.7%	—
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	11.8%	$0.29	6.2%	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.75	72.54%	34
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.75	72.38%	34
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.75	72.41%	34
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.75	72.66%	34
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.75	73.02%	34
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.75	72.95%	34
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.75	72.94%	34
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.75	72.98%	33
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.75	73.07%	33
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.75	73.54%	33
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.75	73.51%	33
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.75	73.48%	35
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.75	73.47%	34
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.75	73.49%	35
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.75	73.48%	33
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.75	73.49%	34
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.75	73.44%	34
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.75	73.50%	33
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.75	73.51%	33
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.75	73.39%	32
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.75	73.36%	32
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.75	73.52%	32
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.75	73.81%	33
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.75	73.89%	32
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.75	73.73%	31
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.75	73.55%	34
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.75	73.63%	35
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.75	73.56%	32
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.75	73.61%	33
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.75	73.59%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%restricted 4.7%pink 0.3%classified 0.1%#d32ee6 0.0%Mythical 16.4%Legendary 0.1%#d32ce6 1.6%#8847ff 15.6%violet 3.0%Restricted 17.2%#4b69ff 8.6%milspec 21.0%mil spec 11.4%