Operation #2

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.54

Advertised RTP

73.36%

EV $0.40 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 9,710	$19.91	0.5%	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 9,698	$19.63	0.5%	—
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 9,662	$18.89	0.5%	—
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 8,747	$11.80	0.3%	—
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,339	$6.44	0.3%	—
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 2,782	$4.47	0.4%	—
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,334	$4.12	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,729	$3.63	0.5%	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,622	$3.53	0.5%	—
SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,432	$3.36	0.6%	—
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,281	$3.22	0.6%	—
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 347	$1.97	1.4%	—
SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$1.22	3.1%	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 86	$1.15	3.4%	—
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 86	$1.15	3.4%	—
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 46	$0.87	4.8%	—
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 43	$0.85	4.9%	—
M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$0.72	5.8%	—
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$0.41	6.8%	—
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.36	6.6%	—
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 14	$0.36	6.5%	—
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.35	6.4%	—
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.33	6.2%	—
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$0.33	6.2%	—
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.30	5.9%	—
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$0.30	5.8%	—
Charm \| Lil' Squatchcharm · #8847ff	1 in 13	$0.29	5.6%	—
Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$0.26	5.0%	—
Sticker \| Move Itsticker · blue	1 in 14	$0.20	3.6%	—
AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.18	3.1%	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.54	73.36%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.54	73.14%	28
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.54	73.10%	28
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.54	73.43%	29
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.54	73.74%	28
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.54	73.74%	29
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.54	73.74%	28
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.54	73.77%	29
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.54	73.81%	29
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.54	74.20%	29
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.54	74.23%	29
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.54	74.21%	29
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.54	74.23%	29
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.54	74.27%	29
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.54	74.22%	28
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.54	74.23%	29
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.54	74.16%	29
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.54	74.24%	29
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.54	74.21%	29
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.54	74.25%	29
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.54	74.18%	29
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.54	74.29%	29
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.54	74.62%	29
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.54	74.66%	29
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.54	74.54%	29
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.54	74.28%	29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.54	74.35%	28
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.54	74.34%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.54	74.33%	29
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.54	74.34%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 0.1%Legendary 0.2%rare 0.0%classified 0.1%Mythical 1.5%restricted 2.2%#8847ff 19.4%mil spec 10.4%violet 21.5%Rare 15.1%#4b69ff 22.3%blue 7.2%