Operation Broken Fang Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$6.79
Advertised RTP
76.02%
EV $5.16 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.75%
6,379 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.26% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.60% – 82.90%, 6,379 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,379 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 5,857 | $162 | 0.5% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.67× |
| Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 187 | $37.55 | 3.9% | 114 | 34.1 | 3.34× |
| Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 33 | $19.63 | 11.6% | 88 | 194.4 | 0.45× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 30 | $18.99 | 12.2% | 203 | 211.0 | 0.96× |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $17.53 | 13.7% | 242 | 256.6 | 0.94× |
| AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 24.0% | $4.60 | 21.4% | 1,997 | 1529.7 | 1.31× |
| Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 22.9% | $3.24 | 14.4% | 1,622 | 1459.3 | 1.11× |
| SSG 08 | Parallax (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 22.1% | $2.98 | 12.8% | 5 | 1411.2 | 0.00× |
| UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 20.1% | $2.48 | 9.7% | 1,655 | 1281.6 | 1.29× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.02%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.02% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.86% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.86% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.10% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.47% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.45% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.45% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.50% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.57% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 76.96% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.04% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.98% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.95% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.05% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.42% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.43% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.35% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.10% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.12% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.12% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $6.79 | 77.08% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%Ancient 0.5%Legendary 3.0%classified 7.3%restricted 24.0%violet 22.9%#8847ff 42.2%best hit —