Operation Riptide Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.69
Advertised RTP
76.49%
EV $2.06 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.73%
5,981 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.53% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (96.66% – 100.79%, 5,981 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,981 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.69 | 76.49% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.39% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.37% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.61% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.69 | 76.91% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.93% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.91% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.03% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.10% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.69 | 77.59% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.69 | 77.47% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.53% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.58% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.56% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.52% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.53% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.47% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.50% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.39% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.57% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.69 | 77.89% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.69 | 77.93% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.82% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.53% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.69% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.63% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.69 | 77.63% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.69 | 77.59% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.2%#d32ee6 0.3%pink 0.3%restricted 5.1%violet 5.9%#8847ff 35.3%blue 12.5%mil spec 9.1%Mil Spec 16.0%#4b69ff 15.2%best hit —