Операции
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$6.79
Advertised RTP
64.43%
EV $4.37 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.56%
2,880 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 65.23% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (65.92% – 71.20%, 2,880 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,884 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.43%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 64.43% | 45 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 64.34% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 64.32% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 64.56% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 64.84% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 64.82% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 64.83% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 64.86% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 64.93% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 65.30% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 65.29% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 65.26% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 65.30% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 65.26% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 65.31% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 65.33% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 65.29% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 65.27% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 65.28% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 65.30% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 65.23% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 65.33% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 65.63% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 65.65% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 65.54% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 65.29% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 65.39% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 65.34% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 65.37% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $6.79 | 65.34% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%sunny 0.0%classified 14.9%extraordinary 0.0%Covert 0.0%red 0.0%Ancient 0.4%restricted 2.3%#d32ee6 7.3%Legendary 23.0%pink 12.4%violet 12.7%#8847ff 26.4%best hit —