Оранжевая коллекция
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.13
Advertised RTP
60.53%
EV $0.08 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.13%
7,814 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 61.28% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (73.96% – 76.30%, 7,814 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,827 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 60.53%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.13 | 60.53% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.13 | 60.45% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.13 | 60.39% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.13 | 60.70% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.13 | 61.04% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.13 | 60.96% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.13 | 61.02% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.13 | 60.90% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.13 | 60.94% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.13 | 61.36% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.13 | 61.42% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.13 | 61.45% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.13 | 61.45% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.13 | 61.43% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.13 | 61.40% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.56% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.42% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.43% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.45% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.46% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.36% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.13 | 61.37% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.13 | 61.87% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.13 | 61.71% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.13 | 61.63% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.13 | 61.33% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.13 | 61.35% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.13 | 61.46% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.13 | 61.49% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.13 | 61.53% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#d32ee6 0.0%pink 0.0%classified 0.0%violet 0.5%Mythical 0.2%restricted 0.1%#8847ff 0.1%mil spec 0.3%#4b69ff 17.2%milspec 27.1%common 10.9%Rare 12.4%Uncommon 10.7%industrial 20.6%best hit $7.73 (59.46x)