OverDrive

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$3.39

Advertised RTP

75.91%

EV $2.57 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.50%

1,229 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

67.31%±16.66121 openings

7 days

80.42%±5.571,061 openings

30 days

79.50%±5.161,229 openings

since tracking started

79.50%±5.161,229 openings

50.0%68.3%86.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	121	67.31%±16.7	−1.0σ	odds
7d	1,061	80.42%±5.57	+1.2σ	odds
30d	1,229	79.50%±5.16	+1.0σ	odds
All	1,229	79.50%±5.16	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,230 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,831	$142	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 9,527	$99.80	0.4%	1	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,515	$98.94	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,400	$91.77	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,967	$75.38	0.3%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,481	$52.68	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,263	$50.73	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,628	$39.83	0.3%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 4,277	$33.19	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Charm \| Quick Silvercharm · red	1 in 3,896	$31.47	0.3%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,215	$23.98	0.4%	0	0.6	—
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,682	$21.36	0.5%	1	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 671	$15.01	0.9%	2	1.8	1.09×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 386	$12.25	1.2%	2	3.2	0.63×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 362	$11.97	1.3%	4	3.4	1.18×
MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 303	$11.22	1.4%	1	4.1	0.25×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 194	$9.52	1.9%	8	6.4	1.26×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 71	$6.49	3.6%	23	17.3	1.33×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$6.32	3.7%	0	18.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$4.55	5.7%	50	39.5	1.26×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$4.23	6.1%	48	45.9	1.05×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$4.07	6.4%	16	49.6	0.32×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$3.61	7.1%	56	62.1	0.90×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 18	$3.36	7.5%	79	70.2	1.13×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$2.66	8.2%	107	98.0	1.09×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 10	$2.16	8.2%	156	120.4	1.30×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	10.3%	$2.02	8.1%	71	126.4	0.56×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	11.3%	$1.63	7.2%	159	139.4	1.14×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	11.5%	$1.51	6.7%	150	141.4	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	11.4%	$1.20	5.3%	75	140.2	0.53×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	11.3%	$1.16	5.1%	124	139.2	0.89×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤$3.39$1.200.35x22m

Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤$3.39$1.770.52x22m

USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤$3.39$2.690.79x22m

AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤$3.39$1.500.44x22m

AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedARD.RP$3.39$1.500.44x1h

Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalARD.RP$3.39$1.770.52x1h

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedARD.RP$3.39$1.170.35x1h

Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffaura farmer$3.39$1.200.35x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$3.39	75.91%	31
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$3.39	75.78%	31
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$3.39	75.82%	32
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$3.39	76.12%	31
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$3.39	76.43%	31
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$3.39	76.43%	31
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$3.39	76.36%	31
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$3.39	76.46%	31
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$3.39	76.55%	31
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$3.39	76.99%	31
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.39	76.96%	31
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	31
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$3.39	76.99%	31
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$3.39	76.99%	31
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$3.39	76.98%	31
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	76.99%	31
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	31
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	31
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$3.39	76.96%	31
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	30
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.92%	31
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.39	77.01%	31
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$3.39	77.32%	31
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$3.39	77.34%	30
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$3.39	77.31%	30
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$3.39	77.04%	29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$3.39	77.05%	30
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$3.39	77.06%	30
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.39	77.08%	30
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$3.39	77.06%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 0.0%blue 0.0%red 0.0%classified 8.0%#d32ee6 0.3%restricted 28.3%pink 8.6%mil spec 4.0%violet 8.0%#8847ff 21.1%Rare 10.3%Mythical 11.3%best hit —