Overpass

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$3.39

Advertised RTP

76.00%

EV $2.58 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

195.75%

5 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

5 openings · below min

30 days

5 openings · below min

since tracking started

5 openings · below min

25.5%214.8%404.0%

Small sample. 5 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	214.75%±188.5	—	odds
7d	5	195.75%±85.2	—	odds
30d	5	195.75%±85.2	—	odds
All	5	195.75%±85.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 15,626	$99.46	0.2%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 416	$28.45	2.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 198	$21.95	4.3%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 34	$11.37	12.9%	0	0.1	—
XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$7.27	21.6%	1	0.4	—
CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	13.2%	$5.05	26.0%	2	0.7	—
P2000 \| Grassland (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	15.6%	$1.54	9.3%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	14.4%	$1.36	7.6%	0	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight	13.6%	$1.26	6.7%	0	0.7	—
MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	13.3%	$1.22	6.3%	0	0.7	—
MP9 \| Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 15	$0.56	1.5%	0	0.3	—
MAG-7 \| Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 33	$0.24	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M249 \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 33	$0.24	0.3%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Scorched (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 34	$0.24	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 36	$0.22	0.2%	0	0.1	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blueTokyo Ghilliaka$3.39$7.282.15x3h

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specWW$3.39$8.262.44x4d

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specWW$3.39$8.342.46x4d

CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffWW$3.39$4.651.37x4d

CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff♿6996♿$3.39$4.651.37x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$3.39	76.00%	15
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$3.39	75.81%	15
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$3.39	75.83%	15
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$3.39	76.10%	15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$3.39	76.43%	15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$3.39	76.49%	15
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$3.39	76.46%	15
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$3.39	76.51%	15
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$3.39	76.54%	15
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$3.39	76.99%	15
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	15
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$3.39	76.93%	15
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$3.39	76.99%	15
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$3.39	77.03%	15
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	15
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	76.98%	15
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	77.00%	15
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	15
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	15
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	77.01%	15
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.84%	15
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.39	77.06%	15
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$3.39	77.39%	15
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$3.39	77.32%	15
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$3.39	77.28%	15
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$3.39	76.98%	15
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$3.39	77.07%	15
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$3.39	77.10%	15
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.39	77.03%	15
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$3.39	77.06%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.0%restricted 0.7%mil spec 2.9%blue 7.6%#4b69ff 13.2%Industrial Grade 29.9%blueLight 13.6%#87c7ff 13.3%Consumer Grade 12.6%consumer 6.0%best hit —