Overpass 2024
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$6.79
Advertised RTP
76.22%
EV $5.18 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.91%
23 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 23 openings and 7.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 332 | $61.61 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 16 | $20.17 | 25.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6 | 25.6% | $9.63 | 47.7% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.70× |
| XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 25.4% | $2.08 | 10.2% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.85× |
| AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 21.1% | $1.66 | 6.8% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.24× |
| Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon | 21.1% | $1.65 | 6.7% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.22%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.22% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.00% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.84% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.88% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.11% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.46% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.48% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.43% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.47% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.57% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.98% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 76.98% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 76.98% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 76.98% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.98% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.94% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.05% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.42% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.40% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.34% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.04% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.14% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.10% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.09% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.3%pink 6.4%#d32ce6 25.6%violet 46.6%uncommon 21.1%best hit —