CS2 Overpass
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.21
Advertised RTP
73.90%
EV $0.16 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.48%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.21 | 73.90% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.21 | 73.76% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.21 | 73.68% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.21 | 74.00% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.21 | 74.37% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.39% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.41% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.34% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.43% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.21 | 74.93% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.21 | 74.88% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.21 | 74.85% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.21 | 74.94% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.21 | 74.89% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.21 | 74.92% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.91% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.86% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.85% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.88% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.87% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.76% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.21 | 74.83% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.21 | 75.28% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.21 | 75.28% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.21 | 75.21% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.21 | 74.86% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.21 | 75.00% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.21 | 74.84% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.21 | 74.97% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.21 | 74.96% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 0.0%covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%pink 0.0%classified 0.0%violet 8.2%restricted 2.5%Legendary 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 0.0%Rare 1.0%Mythical 4.0%mil spec 1.1%#8847ff 4.5%milspec 36.9%industrial 23.7%#87c7ff 9.4%consumer 8.8%best hit —