P250

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.09

Advertised RTP

66.18%

EV $0.72 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d

63.95%

645 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

67 openings · below min

7 days

63.83%±5.35566 openings

30 days

63.95%±5.03645 openings

since tracking started

63.95%±5.03645 openings

48.5%64.0%79.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	67	64.04%±15.0	—	odds
7d	566	63.83%±5.35	−1.1σ	odds
30d	645	63.95%±5.03	−1.1σ	odds
All	645	63.95%±5.03	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 645 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 195,438	$96.97	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 139,160	$36.51	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 139,094	$36.49	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 138,361	$36.28	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 115,764	$30.80	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 78,732	$23.99	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 47,807	$18.82	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 40,957	$17.62	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 30,710	$15.67	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 28,855	$15.29	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 25,695	$14.62	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 15,593	$12.14	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11,260	$10.80	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 9,664	$10.23	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 8,308	$9.71	0.2%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 3,583	$7.26	0.3%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Mint Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 1,713	$5.64	0.5%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,481	$5.36	0.5%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 721	$4.19	0.8%	3	0.9	—
P250 \| Dark Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 635	$4.01	0.9%	0	1.0	0.00×
P250 \| Facets (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 498	$3.68	1.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 393	$3.39	1.2%	4	1.6	2.43×
P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 338	$3.22	1.3%	2	1.9	1.05×
P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 174	$2.54	2.0%	1	3.7	0.27×
P250 \| Lotus Imprint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 147	$2.39	2.2%	7	4.4	1.60×
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 140	$2.34	2.3%	14	4.6	3.05×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$1.94	3.2%	4	7.6	0.53×
P250 \| Contamination (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 62	$1.71	3.8%	0	10.4	0.00×
P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 57	$1.66	4.0%	0	11.2	0.00×
P250 \| Gunsmoke (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 44	$1.48	4.7%	0	14.8	0.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 34	$1.32	5.4%	20	19.1	1.05×
P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 23	$1.11	6.6%	5	27.7	0.18×
P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 14	$0.84	8.1%	0	44.8	0.00×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$0.79	8.3%	2	48.8	0.04×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$0.78	8.3%	61	49.8	1.23×
P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	11.4%	$0.51	8.1%	82	73.6	1.11×
P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	12.3%	$0.38	6.5%	53	79.1	0.67×
P250 \| Iron Clad (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	12.3%	$0.37	6.3%	13	79.1	0.16×
P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	12.3%	$0.37	6.3%	81	79.1	1.02×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	12.2%	$0.36	6.1%	101	79.0	1.28×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalPES$1.09$2.342.15x2m

P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalPES$1.09$1.321.21x2m

P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · RestrictedDava$1.09$0.370.34x1h

P250 | Iron Clad (Field-Tested)weapon · 1Dava$1.09$0.370.34x1h

P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedКИБЕРСПИРТ$1.09$0.890.82x1h

P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedSAKURA$1.09$0.530.49x5h

P250 | Ripple (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rarein_team$1.09$0.390.36x8h

P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffSigaretu$1.09$0.360.33x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.18%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$1.09	66.18%	40
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.09	66.03%	40
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.09	65.79%	40
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.09	65.87%	40
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.09	66.07%	40
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.09	66.44%	40
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.09	66.41%	40
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.09	66.34%	40
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.09	66.39%	40
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.09	66.44%	40
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.09	66.99%	40
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.09	66.89%	40
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.09	66.88%	40
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.09	66.85%	40
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.09	66.86%	40
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.09	66.84%	40
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.09	66.83%	40
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.09	66.83%	40
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.09	66.74%	40
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.09	66.82%	40
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.09	66.77%	40
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.09	66.77%	40
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.09	66.86%	40
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.09	67.12%	40
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.09	67.09%	40
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.09	67.11%	40
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.09	66.92%	40
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.09	66.89%	40
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.09	66.95%	40
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.09	66.96%	40

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 12.3%covert 0.0%Mythical 3.7%pink 0.3%#8847ff 12.2%blue 0.0%classified 1.2%mil spec 0.9%violet 8.4%restricted 7.6%Rare 16.6%industrial 2.7%milspec 0.0%consumer 1.8%#d32ce6 0.1%Uncommon 1.6%gray 6.9%Restricted 23.7%best hit —